Richard Gayle's Old Blog

Dinosaur called Dakota - A Man With a PhD

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 17:19:44 GMT

by hoyasmeg Dinosaur mummy yields its secrets: [Via BBC News | Science/Nature | World Edition]

A beautifully preserved dinosaur found in the US retains remarkable detail of skin cells. [More]

Now this is really cool. The dinosaur's soft tissue was so well preserved and then replaced by minerals that its underlying structure was still maintained. So they could actually see cellular structure. They could determine that the skin had two layers, just as expected by study of modern relatives of the dinosaur. They found that in regions of the dinosaur that had shown bite marks in previous fossils, the skin was much thinner explaining why predators would go for that region first. [More at a Man With A PhD]

Technorati Tags: Science

The failure is the process - SpreadingScience

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:49:13 GMT

by seier+seier+seier

Lessons Learned -- Why the Failure of Systems Thinking Should Inform the Future of Design Thinking: [Via Manage by Designing]

"You never learn by doing something right [OE]cause you already know how to do it. You only learn from making mistakes and correcting them." Russell Ackoff Design and "design thinking" is gaining recognition as an important integrative concept in management practice and education. But it will fail to have a lasting impact, unless we learn from the mistakes of earlier, related ideas. For instance, "system thinking", which shares many of the conceptual foundations of "design thinking", promised to be a powerful guide to management practice, but it has never achieved the success its proponents hoped for. If systems thinking had been successful in gaining a foothold in management education over the last half of the 20th century, there would be no manage by designing movement, or calls for integrative or design thinking.

[More]

This is a very interesting discussion. It seems to me the problem is not with systems thinking but with the attempt to create a defined process for it. Human nature includes trying to grasp innovation by naming it. In many cases, old fashioned hierarchical approaches are being use to try and fold systems thinking into them.

[More at SpreadingScience]

Technorati Tags: Social media, Web 2.0

Communicating science - SpreadingScience

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:48:04 GMT

by hiddedevries

A Climate (Communication) Crisis?: [Via Dot Earth]

If experts change how they describe global warming, will people wake up?

[More]

Interesting points but trying to be more emotional and dramatic is not very effective when facts are trying to be exchanged. There has been a lot of research done that exposes the steps individuals and communities progress through as they adopt new idea and change their viewpoints. It might be better to be aware of this than to try framing exercises.

The five steps are awareness, interest, evaluation, trial and adoption. Different people move through these steps at different rate.This results in a differentiation of a population into different groups: innovators, early adopters, early majority,

Scientists are generally on the innovator/early adopter spectrum of things, especially compared to the entire population, which, by definition, is mostly the 68% in the middle.

Innovators and early adopters take their cues from outside influences and their own experiences. They are open to ideas that come from outside the community and move much faster through the five steps than others. They are not as dependent on community influences as the majority are.

So scientists are influenced by people who are outside their direct social network. We are trained to do that in order to examine data, converting it into useful knowledge that gains us understanding of the natural world. We have a lot of training that helps us have the sagacity to determine the usefulness of a new idea. even if the idea comes from someone 'outside.'

But, for the majority of people in the middle, outside influences are suspect. They usually will only adopt an innovation or change their opinion when a respected member of their own community, of their social network, tells them to. They are generally influenced only by those close connections in their social network.

[More at SpreadingScience]

Technorati Tags: Social media

Disengagement is necessary for innovation adoption - SpreadingScience

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:46:50 GMT

Eartly Adoption: Not Just For Tech?: [Via Amy Sample Ward’s Version of NPTech]

There is a great post from Louis Gray that I’ve been thinking about lately with an interesting view of 5 Major Stages of early adopter behavior. The Five Stages of Early Adopter Behavior include: Discovery, QA and Spreading the Word Promotion and Collaboration Mainstream Use and Engagement Sense of Entitlement, Nitpicking and Reduced Use Migration to Something New, Call to Move Followers You can read the full descriptions of the 5 Stages here. [More]

I've discussed early adopter behavior before. The first few steps compress the normal 5 step process everyone goes through in adopting a new innovation – awareness, interest, evaluation, trial and adoption. Entitlement and migration describe something else – some of the early stages of adopting a new innovation require the rejection of the previous one. This is also behavior seen by innovators. Innovators love something new and even after adopting a new innovation are often looking for the next best thing. But almost anyone who adopts a new innovation must break away from the old one. It may well be a different process for the innovators/early adopters than for the rest of the group, the early and late majorities. Most people are informed about what choices to make by early adopters/innovators. These people do not generally discover new innovations and will adopt what others tell them to. They rely on key influential members of the community to inform them about new innovations. [More at SpreadingScience]

Technorati Tags: Web 2.0

Sulfates make soot worse - Path to Sustainable

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:44:56 GMT

by NoÃ«l Zia Lee

Sulfate lens enhances climate warming properties of atmospheric soot: [Via Eureka! Science News - Popular science news]

Particulate pollution thought to be holding climate change in check by reflecting sunlight instead enhances warming when combined with airborne soot, a new study has found. [More]

This is pretty important. While soot absorbs heat, sulfates are believed to reflect it. In fact, sulfate levels are used to cool the Earth. Some people have even suggested that we shoot large amounts of sulfates into the atmosphere to reflect back sunlight and help cool the Earth.

[More at Path to Sustainable]

Technorati Tags: Environment, Sustainability

Krugman nails it - Path to Sustainable

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:43:56 GMT

by Photographer Jerry Lee

Paul Krugman's column today exposes the denialism prevalent in many Representatives in Congress.

And as I watched the deniers make their arguments, I couldnâo[dot accent]t help thinking that I was watching a form of treason âo[per thou] treason against the planet.

To fully appreciate the irresponsibility and immorality of climate-change denial, you need to know about the grim turn taken by the latest climate research.

Greenhouse gas emissions are rising faster than predicted. So is sea level rise. Ice cap extent, age and thickness is declining faster. Some models predicting a 4 Â°C rise by century's end now predict 9 Â°C. The deniers have absolutely no credible evidence for why this is happening. They do not attempt to really rebut any of this, something they tried to do 15 years ago when the science was not as strong.

Now they just put their heads in the sand and claim that it is all a conspiracy.

So, in the presence of so much data and so much science pointing to tremendous changes, about 200 Representatives deny it is happening, mostly for political reasons.

[More at Path to Sustainable]

Technorati Tags: Environment

Only Russia is better positioned - Path to Sustainable

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:42:06 GMT

Potential wind power is 23 times current US electricity use: [Via Nature Blogs - All Stories]

When the National Academies of Science recently looked at the potential for renewable energy deployment in the states, its expert panel made some reasonable assumptions, such as limits imposed by manufacturing capacity and the current electric grid. This week, the NAS Proceedings will see the publication of a paper that considers what would happen if we dropped reasonableness from the analysis and calculated what we might achieve if we pushed wind power to its maximal capac... [More]

The name of the paper is Global potential for wind-generated electricity. It is Open Access so anyone can read it. Here is the abstract:

The potential of wind power as a global source of electricity is assessed by using winds derived through assimilation of data from a variety of meteorological sources. The analysis indicates that a net- work of land-based 2.5-megawatt (MW) turbines restricted to non-forested, ice-free, nonurban areas operating at as little as 20% of their rated capacity could supply > 40 times current worldwide consumption of electricity, > 5 times total global use of energy in all forms. Resources in the contiguous United States, speciï¬[trademark]cally in the central plain states, could accommodate as much as 16 times total current demand for electricity in the United States. Estimates are given also for quantities of electricity that could be obtained by using a network of 3.6-MW turbines deployed in ocean waters with depths < 200 m within 50 nautical miles (92.6 km) of closest coastlines.

Cool. It is a thought experiment type of paper but does provide some real direction. And as this figure shows, the US is in pretty good shape: [More at Path to Sustainable]

Technorati Tags: Energy Use, Environment, Science

Change science education - A Man With A PhD

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:39:57 GMT

by Lee Nachtigal Science Teacher Retention: It Takes More Than Money: [Via AAAS News - RSS Feed] Science Teacher Retention: It Takes More Than Money

High school science teachers value control over their lesson plans and prestige in their school districts more than salary increases, according to a survey discussed at AAAS. [More]

I am very willing to believe that it would be lot easier to retain science teachers if they did not have to put up with some of the control of curriculum by non-scientists or administrators. But then that really only happens because administrators do not really respect the science teachers. So the two problems go hand in hand. But then, that is because our education system is based on an out-moded approach where finding and disbursing information is hard and must be carefully taught by authority figures. [More at A Man With A PhD]

Technorati Tags: General

Scorpions and frogs - A Man With A PhD

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:37:57 GMT

by noodlemaps

I discuss Paul Krugman's column on the cynical ploys of so many Representatives in Congress at Path to Sustainable. In this case, their denialist views on climate change.

As I said, it reminds me of the fable about the scorpion and the frog. This led me to a very interesting page about the ethics of the situation. In particular, it discusses the scorpion's response or defection, in the context of a real game, one with a definite end..

As the scorpion thinks, 'If the game comes to an end, then I need to get mine before that happens. I need to grab for as much of what is available NOW before the frog gets theirs.'

If there is no future, no shadow on the scorpion, then it might as well do what it wants and follow its nature. No future means it is free to defect from the beginning and never have to cooperate.

Since the scorpion will cynically defect and sting at the first opportunity (why wait until the end anyway?), the decision of the frog now becomes paramount. What should the frog do?

[More at A Man With A PhD]

Technorati Tags: Government, Politics

Been away

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:33:57 GMT

Well, I've not used this in a while and it appears that the sire will be gone by the end of the year, as Userland will no longer be hosting the site. Too bad. I'll keep posting some stuff here but follow on to my real blogs at A Man With A PhD, SpreadingScience or Path to Sustainable.

Technorati Tags: General

Adopting an idea

Thu, 21 May 2009 01:57:36 GMT

I happened to read this article from the Center for American Progress about the different groups found in polls about global warming. and was immediatley taken with the numbers. Here is the relevant figure I wish to discuss.

I've read a lot about how new ideas and innovations work their way through a population (here are some handy examples). What struck me was the these percentages are actually almost exactly the numbers one would expect to see for any innovation or idea moving its way through a society. Read the whole report . Seldom does a survey's report find people falling into similar 'types' seen that full scale research efforts also identified. Look at the numbers - 18%, 33%, 19%, 12%, 11% and 7%. I've mentioned several times before the different groups that are found as an innovation or as new idea diffuses through a community. There has been a lot of work that indicates that there are 5 groups present as a community adopts a new idea:

innovators
early adopters
early majority
late majority
laggards

From the work of Beal, Rogers and Bohlen (and the Wikipedia page), the distribution of each of these types in a population follows a bell curve,

Now look at the numbers from the global warming survey.They fit pretty well into these categories. Just another item to demonstrate how acceptance of a novel idea or innovation breaks down. [More at SpreadingScience]

Technorati Tags: Environment, Social media, Web 2.0

Warming bigtime up north - Path to Sustainable

Tue, 19 May 2009 22:52:24 GMT

NOAA: Fifth warmest April on record: [Via Climate Progress]

NOAAâo[dot accent]s National Climatic Data Center reported last month: Based on preliminary data, the globally-averaged combined land and sea surface temperature was the fifth warmest on record for April, and the January-April year-to-date period tied with 2003 as the sixth warmest on record. lt is worth noting "the El NiÃ±o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transitioned from a cold phase (La NiÃ±a) to ENSO-neutral conditions during April 2009," which kept things on the coolish side. If we stay neutral (as most models currently predict), it'll get hotter and if go into an El NiÃ±o (as some models predict) then we should be back to setting record temperatures. And no, I donâo[dot accent]t think the monthly data tell us much about the climate. But I know reporting it annoys the deniers. More seriously, it is definitely worth seeing where it is warming [click to enlarge]: [More]

The further north you go, the higher the temperature increase. Higher temperatures may sound nice if you have to deal with a Siberian winter but there is a very good reason to want to keep the far north very cold - methane.There are huge amounts of methane held in the permafrost that will be released if the temperature keeps rising. From Climate Progress:

âo¢ NOAA recently reported: âo[ogonek]Methane levels rose in 2008 for the second consecutive year after a 10-year lull,âo[caron] âo¢ Scientific analysis suggests the rise in 2007 methane levels came from Arctic wetlands (see here). âo¢ Siberia contains probably the worldâo[dot accent]s largest amount of carbon locked away in the permafrost (see here). âo¢ The permafrost is increasingly not so perma (see here). âo¢ Much of that carbon would be released as methane, which is 23 times more potent a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.

Release of methane from the permafrost could have a huge effect on climate change as methane is a much stronger greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide with a global warming potential 25 times greater than carbon dioxide over a 100 year timeline. And we have no way of putting it back. [More at Path to Sustainable]

Technorati Tags: Environment

Walking away - A Man With A PhD

Sun, 17 May 2009 18:24:17 GMT

by aussiegall

Back in November, I wrote about Those Who Walk Away From Omelas, Ursula K. LeQuin's classic story of what people will accept for Utopia, or its facsimile.

In the story, the people of Omelas have to ignore the central horrifying truth of the source of their Utopia. And, in a terrifying recognition of humanity's need for rationalization and self-delusion, most of the inhabitants can accept the apparent immorality of their choice simply by ignoring it. Only a few chose to leave, perhaps finding another place to live.

In my discussion, I wrote:

As much as we have tried to hide it, we are now all aware of the dark secrets that were the source of our Utopia. As in the story, the act of bringing these secrets into the open destroys our paradise.

It is now all different. The world has shifted. The dreamworld is no more. Omelas has been overthrown.

Too many of our leaders wish to ignore this shift, to pretend the dream is still achievable. CEOs still behave as if we were unaware of the changed circumstances. Politicians speak as if just a little reworking of the message will get everything back to right. Both feel that money, the root of what caused our dreams to shatter, will be able to fix the problems.

They are both acting as greedily and are as inconsiderate of the world around them as they did while we were all dreamers. They are attempting to rebuild Omelas from the burnt ashes of the ruins. This is a choice of failure.

Now, those of us who wish to survive are forced to make new choices, to find a new path, to walk away from Omelas. We really have no choice because Omelas no longer exists.

I may not know where we are going to but I do know from where we are marching. I only hope I can live long enough see the new place we chose to inhabit. I wonder what it will look like.

Yeah, I was full of my prose but the basic point is true. Our Omelas is gone and those of us who see that know we have to walk away, to find ourselves a new place to live. But we continue to hear from those who want to remain in the city, to hold onto Utopia even as it crumbles around them.

[More at A Man WIth A PhD]

Technorati Tags: General