AOL couldn't get Broadband...
I just read a piece on Dave Winer's blog about AOL. He asks the question, did AOL get the Internet? Doc has written a nice piece about the fall of AOL, and I disagree with them in a couple ways.
I think AOL did get the Internet. They got it enough to start getting people on it back in 1995. They got it way, way before Microsoft did. They provided the training wheels for millions of new surfers, who pissed off the old guard because they weren't trained in the rules of Netiquette. My first trip onto the Internet was through AOL. I also left it rather quickly.
The reason was, I didn't need the training wheels, and the content didn't interest me. I don't chat, and chat is one of the primary reasons for AOLs growth and survival. I can also tell you that; as an observer of a wife and two daughters who still do AOL, there's still a very strong place for someone like AOL, what we will get is MSN. AOL provides a secure comforting environment, that the non-technical find easy to use. The problem is, that it may not matter at all.
The reason is simple, MSN has been able to tap into the broadband market better then AOL. AOL has fished for a Broadband strategy for the past four years with little or no success. Part of that was their failure to move on DSL, they could have been one of the few players in that market to succeed, They were also locked out of Cable, until the Time/Warner merger. Having Time/Warners Cable customers was not enough. If they had made AOL the default provider they would have had better traction. Traction is the key, and the early movers have all the advantages in the Traction game. AOL simply arrived too late and never got out of the gate.
The key to survival for AOL is still a Broadband strategy. They are not too late, they have a huge installed base, but they need to find a solution fast. Outside of that, Doc is right, we will get to watch AOL die a slow agonizing death...mj
11:24:03 AM 
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