A Natural End For Global Warming

The global warming debate centers around the fact that mankind is spewing out huge amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. The primary source of this CO2 is fossil fuels. Since CO2 acts as an insulator in the atmosphere, trapping energy coming from the sun, the result of increasing concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere is an increase in the average global temperature.

Carbon in the form of CO2 is extracted from the atmosphere by land plants as well as phytoplankton, producing oxygen (O2) as a by-product. However, up until a few years ago, scientists thought that phytoplankton only accounted for a small percentage of this CO2 sequestration. With the help of satellite observations, we now know that phytoplankton pulls about the same amount of CO2 out of the atmosphere as all land plants combined.

Once carbon has been removed from the atmosphere by phytoplankton, much of it is consumed by zooplankton, where it makes its way up the food chain. Some of it makes its way to deeper waters where it can potentially be stored for hundreds of years. Only a small portion of the carbon absorbed by phytoplankton makes its way into the seafloor sediments where it can be converted into shale, petroleum or natural gas.

Of course, all of this carbon is eventually released back into the atmosphere through ocean current up wells or volcanic activity, but mankind has accelerated the process by burning fossil fuels.

There is little doubt that we are exceeding the capability of the biosphere to sequester carbon, but is that really such a big concern? Assuming that the industrialized nations continue to pump carbon into the atmosphere at current rates, there is little doubt that an ecological catastrophe would be the ultimate result. However, this is not a possibility. The worldwide extraction rate of fossil fuels exceeded the discovery rate in the 1960's [here]. Without fossil fuel to burn, mankind will not be capable of sustaining the current rate of CO2 production.

By most accounts, petroleum production will peak by 2020 [here]. What does that mean for global warming? Simply, that mankind’s ability to pollute the atmosphere with CO2 will start to decline within the next twenty years. When that occurs, the cost of gasoline and other fossil fuels will start to rise dramatically. Although this may have many dire economical consequences, it will have at least one very positive consequence; alternative energy sources will start to become viable.

Currently, there are a number of energy sources that are waiting in the wings, ready to compete with fossil fuels. The biggest problem with nearly all of them is that they are more expensive than the entrenched fuel of choice, fossil fuel. However, as the cost of fossil fuel eventually goes up, many of these energy alternatives will have the opportunity to be proven.

So, the current era of CO2 production is nearing a natural end. As fossil fuel consumption declines, so will CO2 production. Most of the alternative energy sources available produce little or no CO2. Thus, over time, phytoplankton and plant life will naturally restore the equilibrium of the carbon cycle.

Ultimately, we need to learn to live sustainably on this planet. Fossil fuels have allowed us to live extravagantly, but without consideration for the consequences of our actions. As the fossil fuel era nears its end, mankind will be forced to find sustainable resources and to end the ignorant exploitation of the planet's natural resources.