If this is global warming, it is not working; it is July 24th, 39 degrees, and raining! I'm going to either turn on the furnace or crawl back under the down comforter on my bed. I already have on my warmest Irish knit sweater.
NASA now begrudgingly confirms that the hottest year on record in the continental 48 was not 1998, as previously believed, but 1934, and that six of the 10 hottest years since 1880 antedate 1954. Data from 3,000 scientific robots in the world's oceans show there has been slight cooling in the past five years, never mind that '80 percent to 90 percent of global warming involves heating up ocean waters,' according to a report by NPR's Richard Harris.
Six weeks have passed since I last posted; No, I've not "cut and run." I went to the east coast for a Stock Market Game conference---more about that later. When I returned home, my copy of the Slingerland Practical Guide that I combined and edited was here. That prompted me to clean out paper work from my office (edits from the Practical Guide and my stock market book). I reduced the paper from 7 banker boxes to two Nordstrom shirt boxes. I also cleaned four closets filling the corresponding number of trash bags for the Salvation Army store. Interspersed with all this, I have done plenty of sitting. Now, it's time to get back on track---whatever that means.
4:40:03 PM comment []
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Cut and Run?
I have often thought of the Jews in Germany and Eastern Europe during the early 1930's in connection with my survival in today's world. What did some Jews see and understand that prompted them to leave Germany? Did others not see it, did they doubt its existence, or did they choose to deny and ignore it?
What is there in today's world that I should be seeing in relation to radical Islam threats or other internal/external threats? This question is particularly pertinent to me at this time because of David Warren's column, Invasion of Egypt, Michael Ledenn's Wall Street Journal column,Iran and the Problem of EviI and the book I've just finished reading, Counterinsurgency Warfare by David Galula.
How can I determine whether the threat is real and requires planning for eventualities or whether it is only a misperception in the same vein as being invaded by aliens from outer space? I realize most of the population will not recognize the success of the radical Islam insurgency or other internal/external threats until it is far too late. I don't want to be part of that group. I want to be like the Jews who recognized reality and left Germany and the Eastern European countries. David Warren's enumeration of all the places around the world where radical Islam is experiencing success gives me a feeling of urgency.
Above all, we have sought answers to several basic questions: Why did the West fail to see the coming of the catastrophe? Why were there so few efforts to thwart the fascist tide, and why did virtually all Western leaders, and so many Western intellectuals, treat the fascists as if they were normal political leaders, instead of the virulent revolutionaries they really were? Why did the main designated victims - the Jews - similarly fail to recognize the magnitude of their impending doom? Why was resistance so rare?
Part of his explanation:
The failure to understand what was happening took a well-known form: a systematic refusal to view our enemies' plan.
Another part of his explanation:
Clearly, the explanations we gave for our failure to act in the last century were wrong. The rise of messianic mass movements is not new, and there is very little we do not know about them. Nor is there any excuse for us to be surprised at the success of evil leaders, even in countries with long histories and great cultural and political accomplishments. We know all about that. So we need to ask the old questions again. Why are we failing to see the mounting power of evil enemies? Why do we treat them as if they were normal political phenomena, as Western leaders do when they embrace negotiations as the best course of action?
Most generally evil threats appear in benign clothing and surroundings, here and abroad.
3:12:41 PM comment []
Monday, May 26, 2008
Memorial Day
My deepest sympathy and gratitude for all that has been done and has been given--those who have given the ultimate gift--that I can go about my mundane, everyday activities in peace and security.
You have given YOUR ALL to all Americans, equally, even those who malign who you are and what you do. You have given your life so they have the right to protest against you.
10:35:19 PM comment []
Friday, May 23, 2008
Top Stocks from Top Winners in the Ten Largest Stock Market Game Programs in the U.S.
The national office of the Stock Market Game compiled a list of the top 10 performing stocks from the 10 largest SMG programs (CA, FL, GA, IL, MA, NJ, NY, PA, VA, TX). The article below is found on TheStreet.com through the support of Jim Cramer.
The Stock Market Game is a curriculum-based teaching tool that allows students to invest a hypothetical $100,000 online stock portfolio to learn about long-term saving and investing.
More than 740,000 students participated in the Stock Market Game (SMG) during the 2007-08 school year.
Last fall, we posted the top 10 stock picks from this army of young researchers and analyzed the top five companies. This spring, we have repeated this exercise, tracking the top stocks from the beginning of the SMG on January 14 to the end of the competition on May 2.
Drum roll please.
The five best-performing student stocks are:
1. Corporate Express (CXP - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr): Corporate Express has been rejecting unsolicited buyout offers from Staples (SPLS - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) since February, which has helped fuel a 75% increase in its stock price over the last several months.
Corporate Express is a supplier of office products to businesses and institutions, including computer supplies and office furniture. The company also supplies graphic equipment and related services. As of December 31, 2007, the Corporate Express operates in more than 350 locations in 21 countries.
2. Daiei (DAIEY - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr): This Japanese company is primarily engaged in the retail business, consisting of general merchandise stores, supermarkets, discount stores, convenience stores, department stores and specialty stores for the sale of clothing and sundry goods. Its 61% stock price increase appears to be related to the company's divesture from money-losing subsidiary enterprises.
3. MasterCard (MA - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr): This is a global payment solutions company that provides various services in support of the credit, debit & related payment programs to financial institutes. A falling interest rate environment as well as MasterCard's steady earnings and strong earnings growth in overseas markets made it a slam dunk for SMG students this past semester with a 60% increase in market value. Priceless.
4. Visa (V - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr): Not to be outdone by its chief rival in the credit card business, Visa's IPO on March 19 was the most successful in history, raising $17.9 billion from investors. Blue skies and a sunny earnings outlook continued to bless the world's most recognized global financial services brand. From the time of it's IPO to the end of the SMG on May 2, Visa stock increased 46% -- that's everything an investor could want it to be.
5. United States Steel (X - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr): This company is an integrated steel producer with production operations in the United States and Central Europe. It is also engaged in several other business activities, most of which are related to steel manufacturing. Recent acquisitions, a weak dollar and strong earnings significantly improved this stock's strength, allowing it to post a 40% gain over the course of the spring semester.
The Rest
Rounding out the top 10 list are Research In Motion (RIMM - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) (37% gain); Potash (POT - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) (24% gain); First Solar (FSLR - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) (23% gain); Baidu.com (BIDU - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) (6% gain); and Apple (AAPL - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) (1 % gain).
Six percent and one percent gains for Baidu.com and Apple, respectively, may not seem like much, but both of these stocks were very volatile from January to May, which created significant buying opportunities for many a Stock Market Game student.
Potash and First Solar demonstrate that the green trend among SMG students is alive and well.
Research in Motion and Apple revealed a continuing fascination with tech among our computer savvy students.
Follow the link to the article to view a table showing the Per Share Gain and Per share percentage gain for each of the 10 stocks
Things could be worse. The leaves are 10 days late coming out, but we are finally green, even though it's a bit cool--still in the mid 50's. It is perhaps spring, but not yet summer.
And our baseball team, the Mariners---things could be worse. Actually, I thought they were the worst in all baseball (only 18 wins) and had one of the highest payrolls. Okay, now for the facts:
They have the 2nd worst record in the American League.
They are tied with the Rockies for the 4th worst record in all of Baseball.
And I will be watching them at 3:00 this afternoon!
MUCH LATER: FOUR GAMES LATER
The Mariners have clinched the Bottom Place in the American League by 2 games and have tied with the Colorado Rockies for the Worst Record in All Baseball.
1:00:42 PM comment []
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Arctic Shipping and Global Warming
I am attending Commonwealth North's current study group about global warming and the Arctic Circle countries (the U.S/Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Iceland, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Russia). This week's presentation was by Lawson W. Brigham(check him out; and people like this live in Alaska, which is sometimes called the "backwater of the world"!), Alaska Office Director of the U. S. Arctic Research Commission. He discussed the Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment 2005-2008.
The bulleted items below are highlights from my notes.
"Reduced sea ice is very likely to increase marine transport and access to resources."
"Increased economic activity together with the current retreat of Arctic sea ice presents several plausible futures for the Arctic's regional seas, The Northern Sea Route, The Northwest Passage, and the central Arctic Ocean."
Previous Traffic
Between 1977 and 2005 there were 61 ship transits to the North Pole; 17 ship transits to the North Pole between 2004 and 2005
Seven trans-Arctic transits across the central Arctic ocean have taken place--1991, 1994, 1996, 2005
Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment 2005-2008
Because of decreasing Arctic sea ice and increasing ice-free areas in the Arctic Coastal area and expanding global economic demands and natural resources, there will be an increase in Arctic shipping traffic with concerns about emergency preparedness, response and prevention.
Among other things, the study is determining how many ships ply the Arctic seas (not as easy to determine as one might think). Ships include fishing, whaling, ice breakers, scientific ships, cargo ships, drilling, coast Guard patrol, and cruise ships (around Greenland). They do not count naval vessels.
The route is open and ice free for 15 days during the summer. Yet it still requires an ice breaker.
It is difficult geography to navigate due to many very shallow areas
Importance to Commerce
Shorter route from Hamburg to Yokohama--7,000 miles vs 11,000 through the Suez and 12,000 through the Panama Canal and 14,500 around the Cape of Good Hope
This shipping route works best for natural resources. Stock pile them then transport them during the summer.
Alaska's Red Dog Mine (the largest zinc mine in the world) initiates 250 barge transits from Kivalina to the outside world during the 100 day shipping season.
This PDF is a summary of what he shared with us plus some well-detailed graphics and some great pictures. The graphics and pictures are will worth the time to click on the link and look at it.
5:39:42 PM comment []
The 1st Place Overall and the 1st Place Middle School portfolio management team was Team ZZ61 from Mitkof Middle School in Petersburg. They competed against 54 teams within Alaska---adults, individual high school students, and high school, middle school and elementary school teams. Congratulations!! Even though we had a difficult market between January 14th and April 25th, Team ZZ61 made $13,349 by investing their $100,000 in five companies. They increased the value of their portfolio by 13.5 percent. Their portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 Index by 12.06 percent. That is the official measurement of their portfolio management skills. Many highly paid professional money managers did not do that well during that particular time. These five students invested in world-wide natural resource companies, a world leading Swiss company that developed the first milk food for infants in 1867, and a U.S. company that started in 1892 and was the first to manufacture electric fans and is now one of the world's largest engineering and conglomerate corporations.
Team A17 from Rocky Mountain High School in Goodnews Bay won the 1st Place award for portfolio management in the High School Division. The value of their portfolio increased by $11, 953--10.66 percent better than the S&P500 Index. These two students had a diversified portfolio of 11 stocks that included Exxon, Alliance Data Systems, Columbia Sportswear, Sony, and Apple. One of their important management strategies was to cut their losses at 8 percent. Congratulations to Team A17.
Team A2 from Academy Charter School in Palmer won the 1st Place award for portfolio management in the Elementary School Division. Their portfolio, a diversified portfolio that contained 10 stocks including the United States Oil Fund (an ETF), Caterpillar, American Express, Pepsi Bottling, McDonalds, and Hershey, increased in value by $1,273 and beat the S&P 500 Index by 2.57 percent. Their portfolio was 11th out of 54 teams of adults, middle schoolers, and high schoolers. Congratulations!
Yesterday, I finished my Stock Market Game Program Alaska coordinator end-of-game activities as I delivered the last winner certificates and SMG t-shirts. To the Winners: Wear your t-shirts with pride.
Kudos to all those students who participated and learned about the economy, companies, the stock market, and investing in stocks and mutual funds and to the teachers who chose to use the Stock Market Game program as a teaching tool with their students to engage them in a fun, yet meaningful, hands-on learning experience. Their teaching and encouragement allowed their students to begin their journey in becoming thoughtful investors.
10:40:49 AM comment []
I went to Northrim's annual meeting the other morning---sweet rolls, bagels, orange juice, several very good presentations, and record attendance.
The bulleted items below are some of the highlights from my notes.
The Bank
Their net income was down on higher provisions for loan losses
Their stock price has undergone a 34% decline
They acquired Alaska First Bank and Trust
They have a new branch in Fairbanks
Deposits are slowly increasing
Loans are down---construction, consumer, and real estate
Item
Lower 48 States
Alaska
Home values
down 3%
up 4%
Subprime Mortgages 2004-06
21% of loans
10% of loan
Average Delinquency Rate
6.3%
3.3%
Loans in Foreclosure
2%
0.6%
The Economy
Securitized home mortgages ended the connection between the lender and the borrower.
Recession fears (I have inflation-stagnation fears)
In the past year the price of crude oil has gone from $65 to $120. If the dollar had stayed put---not declined---the price of oil would be $70.
Alaska
The natural gas line--AGEA won't work; the Denali gas line outside the AGEA process looks quite hopeful
Mining---$3.4B in production in 2007---$550M invested in additional exploration
Anchorage
Building permits for single family units---in 2006 there were 672 permits; 2007 there were 525 permits; 2008 there are 310 permits (by this time of year most of the permitting is completed)
Housing units listed for sale---930 last year---1,114 currently
The Relationship Between the Price of Crude and the Price of Gasoline
A barrel of crude makes 42 gallons of gasoline. If the price of crude goes up $10, the price of gasoline will go up $0.24. $10/42 = $0.238
If the price of gasoline goes up faster than this, oil companies are exercising some market power and not just passing the increase on to consumers.
10:27:53 PM comment []
On April 14th 2008, the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline reached a new all-time, inflation-adjusted high of $3.37. But people are driving less and oil supplies are increasing! Decreasing demand and increasing supply should lower the price of gasoline; so why are gas prices rising? Is it the election? A conspiracy? Price gouging oil companies? Or might supply and demand still have something to do with this mystery?
Before the new records set in March and April of 2008, the highest historical price for gasoline was in May, 1981 when the average price was $1.36/gallon. In today's dollars, that's the equivalent of $3.22. While gasoline and oil prices have reached and passed the highs of the '80s, they're high for different reasons. Read the excerpts from two articles below for a comparison between the factors influencing gas prices then and gas prices now.
Gas prices strike all-time high (CNNMoney.com, March 31, 2008)
Average gasoline prices have hit another all-time high, according to a survey conducted for motorist organization AAA.
The average price of regular rose to $3.287 a gallon, up from $3.286 the previous day, according to the AAA Web site.
The price averaged $3.165 a month ago. A year ago, American drivers were paying $2.673, according to AAA.
. . . Analysts say surging crude prices are largely to blame for pricey gas. Crude topped $100 a barrel in early 2008, and has traded above $100 for most of the year.
While gasoline prices have hit record highs well before the start of the summer driving season, most analysts expect prices to peak relatively early - somewhere between $3.30 and $3.80 a gallon - and then decline during the second half of the spring as a slowing economy crimps demand.
Oil Prices Pass Record Set in '80s, but Then Receded
(by Jad Mouawad, NY Times, March 3, 2008)
Since 2000, oil prices have more than quadrupled as strong growth in demand from the United States and Asia outstripped the ability of oil producers to increase their output.
The rising prices of the past decade failed to dent global economic growth as consumers absorbed the higher costs. Even now, with the United States economy slowing markedly, the trend has not slowed much. Global oil consumption is still expected to increase by 1.4 million barrels a day this year, driven by demand in China and the Middle East.
Still, today's record is markedly different from the energy crises of the 1970s and 1980s. These were brought about by sudden interruptions in oil supplies, such as the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the Iranian revolution of 1979, or the outbreak of the war between Iran and Iraq in 1980.
Also, the United States economy at the time was much more dependent on oil than it is today. The amount of oil needed to increase economic output by $1 has dropped by 25 percent since 1990.
In the early 1980s, energy accounted for about 8 percent of disposable income in American households. As the economy became less energy-intensive and prices declined, that share fell under 4 percent in the early 1990s.
But as prices keep rising, the share of energy spending has been increasing. It reached more than 6 percent of household disposable income in December.
Since the year 2000, increasing demand for gasoline, mainly from Asia and the United States, has lead to rising gas prices. An increase in demand means that consumers are willing and able to buy more gas at any given price. However, according to the Dept. of Economic Analysis, demand for gasoline has actually decreased by 1% since January. When demand decreases, the equilibrium price and quantity decrease. Why then, are prices still rising?
Economists and analysts think that commodities markets, gasoline futures contracts, and the exchange rate may have something to do with the rising prices. Because of news reports on "the Dow", most of us are aware that investors buy and sell stocks in markets like the New York Stock Exchange or the NASDAQ, but we may not realize that investors also buy and sell futures contracts for commodities such as iron ore, gold, sugar, crude oil, and gasoline. Every day billions of dollars in commodities are bought and sold on the floors of commodities exchanges like the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) or the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). As buyers and sellers interact, commodities prices change, and those changes can affect the price we pay for gasoline at the pump.
A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a commodity at a prearranged future date and price. The basic purpose of a futures contract is to provide price-change protection. For example, a farmer estimates that it will cost $2 a bushel to produce his wheat. Rather than run the risk that the market price for wheat will be less than $2 at harvest time, he can enter into a contract now to deliver the wheat at harvest time for a price of $2.50. At the same time, a food processing company may want to enter into a contract now to receive the wheat for $2.50 rather than run the risk that the market price at harvest time may be higher than $2.50.
However, the buyers and sellers of the actual commodities are not the only players in the futures market. Speculators buy and sell futures contracts, but have no desire to own the actual commodity; they see the possibility of price change as an opportunity for profit. A speculator who anticipates a commodity price increase will buy a futures contract now with the hope of selling it at a higher price later on. On the other hand, a speculator who anticipates that a commodity price will decrease, will sell a contract he doesn't own (a practice called selling short) with the hopes of being able to buy it back at a lower price.
Contracts are bought and sold many times over before the contract date when the actual commodity must be delivered. In fact, the Chicago Board of Trade estimates that only four percent or less of what is traded, actually gets delivered as businesses attempt to manage risk and speculators attempt to profit by anticipating price changes.
A final piece of the puzzle of rising gas prices in a time of falling demand is the exchange rate. In order to trade goods and services with other countries, businesses must first exchange currencies. Currencies are bought and sold in the foreign exchange market and the term exchange rate refers to the price of one currency in another--or how much of one currency it takes to buy another currency. If it takes more and more dollars to buy one euro, then we would say that the dollar is depreciating relative to the euro and the euro is appreciating relative to the dollar. The articles below refer to a "falling dollar" which, in general, means the dollar is depreciating relative to other currencies. Sometimes this is also referred to as a "weak dollar." That means foreign investors can buy more dollars for less of their own currency. And then, rather than just holding those American dollars and watching them lose value as the dollar falls or inflation decreases the purchasing power of the dollar, they can invest in things for which they expect the price to rise faster than inflation. . . like gasoline or crude oil futures contracts.
Read the following excerpts and pay close attention to the role that commodities markets, futures contracts, and exchange rates are playing in the rising gas price saga.
Gas Prices Near Records, Following Oil (by John Wilen, Associated Press, March 10, 2008)
. . . Many analysts believe speculative investing attracted by the weak dollar is the primary reason oil has risen so far so fast in recent months. Crude futures offer a hedge against a falling dollar, and oil futures bought and sold in dollars are more attractive to foreign investors when the dollar is falling.
. . . Many investors believe the greenback is likely to keep falling as the Fed continues to cut [interest] rates. Many analysts believe the rise in crude prices is not supported by the market's underlying fundamentals, noting that supplies are generally rising while demand is falling.
"By gobbling up everything in sight, (investors) are pushing food and fuel prices to ruinously high levels," said Peter Beutel, president of the energy risk management firm Cameron Hanover, in a research note.
Good Question: If people are driving less, why do gas prices keep rising?
(by John Wilen, Associated Press, March 21, 2008)
Q: If people are driving less, why do gas prices keep rising?
A: People are indeed driving less. Gas consumption has fallen about 1 percent since late January.
Yet, gas prices are on the rise. Gas has averaged more than $3 a gallon for four straight months and, more recently, has surged into record territory. Estimates of how high gas prices will go this year vary from $3.50 a gallon to $4. But virtually everyone agrees prices have higher to go before they fall.
This disconnect between demand and price may seem to violate fundamental rules of economics, but gas prices are actually responding to demand of a different kind: from investors.
Contrary to the views of many conspiracy theorists, gas prices aren't set by refiners or gas stations as part of a campaign to gouge consumers. Prices are a function of the open market, as manifested in the trading of futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, or Nymex.
Nymex gasoline futures have been rising, following oil, despite growing supplies of both commodities. Blame the falling dollar, which has made dollar-denominated oil contracts irresistible to foreign investors and to any investors looking for a safe haven for their money during a turbulent time in the stock market.
This buying by investors has pushed oil futures to a series of records in recent weeks, and the rest of the energy complex -- which includes gasoline futures -- has followed.
Unfortunately, consumers pay for this investment frenzy in the form of higher pump prices. And despite mounting evidence that Americans are cutting back on their gasoline habit -- and may cut back even more drastically as gas gets more expensive -- it might be some time before prices start responding to lower demand.
Teacher Guide to Discussion Questions
1) What caused the high oil prices of the early 1980s?
The "energy crises of the 1970s and 1980s . . . was brought about by sudden interruptions in oil supplies, such as the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the Iranian revolution of 1979, and the outbreak of the war between Iran and Iraq in 1980."
2) What explains the rising oil prices from 2000 to 2006?
A rising demand world-wide for oil. "Global oil consumption is still expected to increase by 1.4 million barrels a day this year, driven by demand in China and the Middle East."
3) Despite the 1% decrease in demand since January, 2008 and the increased supplies of oil, what explains the recent and continued rise in gasoline prices today?
"Blame the falling dollar, which has made dollar-denominated oil contracts irresistible to foreign investors and to any investors looking for a safe haven for their money during a turbulent time in the stock market."
"Investors desperate for havens in a deep housing market slump are buying up all kinds of commodities, including oil. In addition, a weak dollar makes oil cheaper in foreign nations."
4) If the Federal Reserve continues to enact expansionary monetary policy (i.e. "the Fed continues to cut rates"), what impact will this have on the value of the dollar relative to foreign currencies? How will that impact futures contracts for crude oil and gasoline? And how would this impact gasoline prices?
Expansionary monetary policy may lead to higher price levels (inflation) for everything we buy with dollars . . . including other currencies. In other words, it will take more dollars to buy those foreign currencies. The dollar will depreciate relative to foreign currencies.
That could continue to spur demand by foreign investors for oil and gas futures (which are traded in dollars), and that increase in demand for futures could ultimately lead to even higher prices for gasoline.
5) Markets are dynamic. There is constant pressure on supply and demand from all directions. Identify some variables referred to in these articles that could increase the demand for gasoline? Decrease?
Increase
-Summer driving season
-Increase in oil consumption in China and Middle East
Decrease
Slower economy
"Americans--cutting back on their gasoline habit"
6) Identify some variables referred to in these articles that could increase the supply of gasoline? Decrease?
Increase
". . . ability of oil producers to increase their output" (i.e. improved technology, discovery of new resources)
Decrease
-increase in price of crude (an input for gas)
-hurricane, war, or other supply disruption
7) If the supply of gasoline increases at the same time demand increases, can you say for sure what will happen to the equilibrium price and quantity?
When supply and demand increase at the same time, more will be exchanged (equilibrium quantity will increase). Equilibrium price, however, may increase, decrease, or stay the same, depending on the relative size of each shift. For example, if the increase in demand is greater than the increase in supply, price will rise. If the increase in supply is greater than the increase in demand, price will fall.
8:54:25 AM comment []
Sunday, May 4, 2008
I have completed combining, organizing, and editing two of the Slingerland textbooks to create one new Slingerland teaching guide.
Here is the copy of the inside page I had framed.
It reads:
THE SLINGERLAND MULTISENSORY APPROACH: A Practical Guide to Teaching Reading, Writing and Spelling
Based on the following books by Beth H. Slingerland:
A Multi-Sensory Approach to Language Arts for Specific Language Disability Children: A Guide for Primary Teachers
Basics in Scope and Sequence of a Multi-Sensory Approach to Language Arts for Specific Language Disability Children: A Guide for Primary Teachers in the Second-Year Continuum
Combined and Edited by: Nancy B. King
Senior Editor: Carol Hult
Slingerland Institute for Literacy
Bellevue, Washington
I finished the combining and editing; I sent it to Carol Hult in Kodiak who did the professional editing (final style decisions, edited it for final consistencies, cleaned up my organization---when in doubt I added another subheading, etc); I went to Seattle to work with Karlyn and Elyce in the Slingerland office to read back through Carol's edits and made some final changes; Karlyn and Elyce did the layout; I flew back to Seattle so Karlyn and I could meet with the Institute's professional materials review committee; we put in some minor changes from them; Karlyn has read through three proofs from the publisher; she will return the last proof to the publisher tomorrow; the publisher should have some of the first copies off the press by May 20th. Last September I set May 15th as the publishing date. We're not going to miss it very far.
This project has been all consuming since last March--for the past year. Now I am discovering that there is life after Slingerland. I resigned as treasurer and as a board member last June, have finished this project, and my good friend, Karlyn, will leave their employ as Executive Manager as of June 30th to move to Virginia with her husband who is retiring from the Bethel, Alaska school district as a vice superintendent. So my involvement in the Slingerland Institute for the past 33 years will come to an end. It is time!
3:29:07 PM comment []
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Insurgency and Counterinsurgency
Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice written David Gaulula, a French lieutenant colonel who gained his experience in Algeria. The book was first published in 1964, forgotten then republished in 2006. He didn't live long enough to see the our military ignore most of his prescriptions in Vietnam.
I came across a reference to it in a book about General Zinni. In this day and age of insurgency I wanted to know how it gets started, how to recognize it, how to prevent it, and how to get rid of it---how to counter insurgents.
This packed 99-page book discusses revolutionary war (its nature and characteristics); prerequisites for a successful insurgency; insurgency doctrine; counterinsurgency in cold and hot revolutionary wars; from strategy to tactics; and eight steps of specific operations to successfully counter insurgents (not an easy task).
The Operations section is an excellent explanation (remember, written in 1964) of the Surge in Iraq. I wish the powers-that-be had discovered this information much sooner. However, the Operations chapter makes following the current progress in Iraq---military, political, economic, and populace most interesting and elucidating. I wish it were required reading for Congress. It clearly explains the criteria for success and defines the timeline for pulling out.
. . .counterinsurgency forces can protect and hence gain support of the populace, acquire information on the identity and location of insurgents, and thereby defeat the insurgency. While the primary challenge of conventional warfare is massing firiepower at the appropriate place and time to destroy the enemy, the key to success in counterinsurgency is massing intelligence derived from the local population to identify the enemy; the counterinsurgent is literally dying for that information.
. . . Technology is no substitute for boots on the ground among the population, and numbers matter.
. . . Protecting or rebuilding a state is much harder than toppling its government, demanding a far greater investment of time, treasure, and intellect.
I was also particularly interested in how to prevent insurgents----don't isolate groups of people. Integrate them via language, culture, and economic opportunity.
9:23:59 AM comment []
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
Exciting and Fantastic
After all these years of the State of Alaska's dickering and dithering, which it is still doing, BP and Conoco have just announced they are building the natural gas pipeline on their own, without any State participation!
They are creating a new company headquartered in Anchorage to manage the project. The project will be called Denali--The Alaska Gas Pipeline. They estimate the cost of the gas line to be between $20 billion and $40 billion.
Yes, to oil company profits. Those profits will bring jobs to Alaska and natural gas to the Lower 48. Alaska's natural gas plus the other natural gas pipelines that are being built in the Lower 48 will increase the supply of natural gas and decrease its price.
12:57:10 PM comment []
Monday, April 7, 2008
The Final Two of The Final Four
For me it's the Jayhawks all the way. After all I grew up in Kansas and #15 Mario Chalmers is from Anchorage. Of course, there is no other team!
However, I am terribly conflicted---no matter which team I'm for, they fail to win. My being actively for the team and cheering them on is like the kiss of death for the team, and they don't even know what hit them.
So far, so good---KU 33; Memphis 28.
Later
Not so good now---KU 49; Memphis 56 with 3:49 minutes left. 1.54 minutes left and still 7 points down. I do believe that's that.
Sorry Daughter, but I just had to root for the Jayhawks!
Even Later
Oh, my gosh, I don't believe it!!! KU won in overtime and Anchorage's Mario Chalmers has been named the Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four. It doesn't get any better than that.
6:17:01 PM comment []
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Culture Last Night
I crawled out of my baggy jeans, put on my black skirt, my "Bad Girls of the North" tapestry jacket, and my Fluevog heels and went with L to the Anchorage Symphony. The Mozart Horn Concerto No. 4 with Darrel Kincade as soloist was definitely worth going to hear.
Darrel Kincade can not only play the French horn but can also get high kids to make music. After retiring from the military, he went back to school and obtained a degree in music education. Under his direction in 1999 and 2000 the Music Department of Service High School received Grammy Awards, in 2002 the Service High School Symphonic Band was awarded First Place Gold at the Heritage Festival in Hawaii, and in 2007 his South High band received two First Place Gold Awards at the Heritage Music Festival in Las Vegas,
10:02:37 PM comment []
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Cut Your Losses
I've created the following for a When to Sell ("Why Sell") presentation. I keep trying to bring reality into facing losses and doing something about them other than using the four little words---It Will Come Back.
Take the loss, free up the capital, and buy a stock that is trending up!
Drop this Percentage (example: $70 stock)
This percentage to Come Back
7% ($4.90 drop; stock price becomes $65.10)
7.52% ($65.10 stock requires a $4.89 per share gain)
I was appalled yesterday when the reality of Medicare coverage clashed with my ethics of "paying my own way."
I had gone for my quick yearly checkup to get my prescription renewed. When I was ready to leave, the Nurse Practitioner went with me to the billing person to be sure the correct box was checked so they would be paid.
We had the billing person check last year's form. She had used the Check Up box. Medicare had denied coverage. Because Medicare denied coverage, my Teacher Retirement medical coverage also denied coverage.
Then I became worried that I had neglected to pay the bill or maybe I had written the check and had forgotten. No, No, naive me! Because I am a Medicare patient (believe me, not by choice), the clinic could not bill me. They had to "eat" the cost of my visit. I couldn't stand there and write a check for the services I had received. I was and still am appalled. Businesses can't stay in business long at that rate.
Therefore, you, the non-Medicare patients, are charged more than the actual cost of your visits to make up for what Medicare won't pay for Medicare patient services rendered. No wonder Alaska doctors don't want Medicare patients. It is more and more difficult to find a doctor or clinic that will take Medicare patients.
8:35:57 AM comment []
Sunday, March 9, 2008
An Interesting Statistic
According to the IBDhere, we need to create 130,000 new jobs each month to keep up with the people entering the workforce. Does that mean actual newly created jobs? Does it mean job vacancies that require hiring to fill? Does it mean net 130,000 new jobs?
At first that seemed like a large number, month after month. However, I guess that's not so many. When I stop to think about all the businesses in Anchorage as well all across the U.S., it only requires 130,000 to create one new job.
I don't remember which charge slip from which store I frequent that currently states they are hiring.
Target is arriving this summer, so I guess that will be a number of new jobs. BP has been doing significant hiring for the past several months.
In the mean time, I have a new tutor student. This is the first since I finished the middle of August with the four I worked with all summer.
9:31:22 PM comment []
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Yuk Time in Alaska
The rest of the world has Spring. Ours is called Breakup. We are in the midst of it, at least for a while; maybe there will be a bit of fresh-snow relief one of these days. Currently, the only bare ground showing is around the base of trees, so the trash has not yet started to bloom. We have a long way to go. The walking streets and trails are a sheet of ice with a film of water. Everything is so Dirty. Everyone's car is a mud brown ball rolling down the street and through puddles the size of lakes. And it will be this way until Mother's Day weekend when the leaves come out on trees.
1:53:10 PM comment []
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Non-Profits
I spent from mid-morning to late afternoon in a non-profit Board strategic planning meeting with an excellent facilitator from Foraker Group.
Number of Non-Profits in Alaska
Alaska has close to 6,000 non-profits (only about 600 are churches). There is 1 non-profit for every 77 people in Alaska.
In Alaska 11 percent of the population works in non-profits, nationally it is 7 percent.
In Alaska non-profits are a $2.4B business.
Where Do Non-Profits Obtain Their Money
Nationally: 40% earned income, 35% government, and 25% donations.
The donation category involves $295B. Where does it come from: 4% corporations, 12% foundations, 84% individuals.
A Non-Profit's Direction
(rather than the old Mission and Vision)
Who are you?
Where are you going?
What are you doing to get where you are going?
What are you doing to make it happen?
If you go after money to Get-Money, it doesn't work. Money asking is driven by What you are doing to make happen to get Where you are going?
Sustainability of a Non-Profit
Mission---Is there still a need for the non-profit and what it does (not always)? For some it may be time to go to a hospice.
Financial---Requires unrestricted income---Government, Corporations, and Foundations give only restricted funds for starting a project or a capital expenditure. A non-profit needs 6 months of non-restricted monies held in reserve for operation expenses.
The Right People---The success of a non-profit depends on the Board first, then the Staff. The Board must consist of people who are committed to the Mission and give generously of their time and energy for the good of the organization and its focus. Non-profits also need to "age down" their Board memberships (84M Baby Boomers and 42M Gen Xers)
The relationship between the CEO and the staff is like a marriage. Each has to know, trust, and communicate and refrain from making decisions for the other.
Collaborative ---organizations working together
Yes, it was worth my Monday's time and energy.
9:38:09 AM comment []
