Thirty years or so ago, the Russians had a bright idea - and climatologists around the world were scared. It concerned two great Russian rivers called the Ob and the Yenesi, that lie far to the east of the Ural Mountains and meander northwards across the West Siberian Plain to meet the Arctic Ocean in the Kara Sea.
The idea was to dam these rivers, and provide the necessary artificial channels for the water thus contained to drain southwards to the Caspian Sea. The scheme, it was felt, and probably correctly, would greatly enhance the agricultural viability of the vast, arid, cotton-growing steppes of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and all the other little 'stans' on that region's maps.
The Soviets foresaw other useful side-effects. Without the influx of fresh water from these rivers, the Arctic Ocean would become progressively more salty, and would be reluctant to freeze over.
Off-shore oil reserves would be more easily exploitable, and cargo vessels could use shorter, cheaper routes to distant destinations during winter.
But western climatologists were all aghast. An iceless Arctic Ocean would be up to five degrees Celsius warmer in wintertime than is the case at present. They believed that the change would upset the thermal patterns of the whole northern hemisphere, and alter the general circulation of the atmosphere in ways which would have profound effects. For a little time the arguments raged to and fro, and then the plan was quietly dropped. But now it has re-appeared upon the table; all's changed, changed utterly, say those who advocate the scheme.
The arguments in favour, they reckon, are still valid, and a fortiori since climate models predict large decreases in rainfall in Central Asia if global warming continues.
Moreover, that same global warming, they point out, has already resulted in much greater quantities of fresh water being discharged into the Arctic Ocean in recent times than was the case, say, 50 years ago; this dilutes its saltiness, and could result in due course in a shutting down of the North Atlantic Conveyor which maintains the Gulf Stream, thereby triggering a sudden lurch to icy winters throughout Europe. Diverting some of the fresh water from the Russian rivers, they maintain, will prevent this dire catastrophe from happening.
The new plan, which apparently has powerful supporters in Russia and its neighbouring countries, is to divert about seven per cent of the flow of the River Ob to run southwards through a canal 200 metres wide and 2,500 km in length. This water would ultimately flow into the Amudarya and Syrdarya rivers near the Aral Sea, and there provide the region with some 50 per cent more irrigation water.
One is reminded of a remark by climatologist Wallace Broeker at a conference some years ago: "Climate," he said, "is an angry beast, and we are poking it with sticks."
[ Weather Eye, Brendan McWilliams, Irish Times, 16 February 2004 ]
