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Tuesday, February 03, 2004
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by David R. Remer Political News & Analysis
Dick Cheney is reported to say this war on terrorism will be with us for decades. How bloody convenient for the hawks and military industrial complex. And how extremely unfortunate for America's sons and daughters who choose to enter the military, or, are drafted if they choose en masse not to. If the U.S. worked closely with other nations to stamp out terrorism and set a goal of 3 years or 5 years to get the job done, there is no doubt in my mind the international community could have and would have accomplished that goal since it would serve the interests of all nations. Who was served by the alienation of the U.N., France, Germany, Russia, and the E.U.? Who stands to gain from a war on terrorism that lasts decades?
If Americans by a majority do not ask and perceive the answer to this question, we will get a perpetual war, both hyped and propped up in the media as well as real with torn limbs, disemboweled bodies, and headless U.S. military victims. Why will we get this perpetual war? Because it will be good for the economy, it will be profitable for R&D companies, it will be profitable for energy companies, it will be profitable for arms and munitions manufacturers, and it will good for the Republican Party.
Polls show the public trusts the Republicans on security and military issues more than they trust any other party. There could be no better insurance policy for the Republican Party to retain power than a perpetual war overseas that is designed to protect us here at home from an invisible enemy. An enemy our Intelligence community was, and is, unable to detect, follow, or capture in whole. The 9/11 investigative commission has discovered that the dots were there to connect and they were huge DOTS. The dots screamed for increased security of American domestic and American bound aircraft. Many in our government and in the intelligence community warned of the DOTS and the picture they drew, and either their views were dismissed out of hand. The DOTS, information pieces from different intelligence sources, when connected, predicted a terrorist attack against the U.S. using aircraft as weapons. Intelligence agents connected these dots and spelled out the picture and they were dismissed. There is no excuse, no rationale, no way to understand why the U.S. did not beef up airline security prior to 9/11 unless there was a deliberate design to allow an attack to occur or a gross negligence on the part of this administration.
What intelligence officials did not know, and probably could not know, was just how devastating such an attack could be. Had this administration and intelligence leadership had any idea of the potential devastation of using planes as weapons, in all likelihood, airline security would have been implemented. But, this does not, in anyway, negate the fact, that airline security should have been beefed up based on reports by intelligence officials who did in fact connect the DOTS.
There is no doubt in my mind, that this Bush administration felt a bit cheated that Clinton had the first trade center attack on his watch. This administration no doubt viewed it as a wasted opportunity: If only it had happened on this administration’s watch, it would have provided the justification and sales pitch they needed to carry out their predefined plan to establish a military presence in the middle east, to take out Saddam Hussein, to expand American military around the globe, and reap the benefits of those trillions of dollars of military buildup and spending, and demand for energy sources such expansion would create. Then 9/11 occurred, and an ironic "stroke of luck" gave this administration what they wished for.
In the end, it will be found that there is no evidence the Administration knew when or how the planes would be used as weapons for a terror attack on the U.S. Too, it will be found that this Administration did know there was a likelihood that planes would be used at some point as a means of terror attack upon the U.S. The only conclusion to draw from this is that the Administration was responsible for knowing there was a pending threat by aircraft, and they chose to not respond to that threat by beefing up airline security. That makes this Administration partly responsible for the attacks, and negligent in its duty to protect and defend the security of the United States and its people.
10:55:18 AM Google It!
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Friday, December 19, 2003
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by David Remer Political News & Analysis (Dec. 19, 2003)
Last night on MSNBC's Hardball with Chris Matthews, the Republican jugular was exposed. Chris Matthews repeatedly asked Peggy Noonan, a most eloquent conservative spokesperson and top media champion for President Bush, a question which she simply could not answer. Recent polls were being discussed, specifically the bump in the President's ratings after the capture of Saddam Hussein. All was looking good for the President, when Chris Matthews took note of the fact that 52% of Americans believe that Saddam Hussein was directly responsible for the 9/11 attacks.
It has been unequivocally established that there in is no evidence at all that links Saddam Hussein to 9/11, and the other panelists agreed. Peggy Noonan took exception and Chris Matthews asked Noonan whether she believed Hussein was responsible. She gave an evasive answer; Matthews asked again; another evasive answer; and 3 or 4 more times Matthews tried to get Noonan to state the fact. She couldn't. And in not being able to admit the fact in public for reasons outlined below, and by evading and redirecting the subject numerous times, she appeared to be a person without credibility, without honesty, and this she did on prime time TV.
This is the jugular of the Bush Administration. The polls showing more than half of Americans are still misinformed by the President and the Vice President as to the absence of any connection between Hussein and 9/11 and therefore, they are interpreting the capture of Hussein as a victory over the terrorists who caused 9/11. Hence, the bump in the polls.
If the opposition spends its money and expertise in educating the public on the facts, in very much the same manner as Matthews did for his audience with Noonan, support for the President will drop like a stone. Why? Because upon learning the facts and accepting the truth, they will be embarrassed for having been so gullible and have only the President to blame for the embarrassment. Then, they will have to ask why the body bags and tens of billions of tax dollars were spent in a, go it alone if need be, invasion into Iraq? Finally, they will have to ask how much safer would we be had we spent those military lives and monies going after the actual terrorists responsible for 9/11.
The enjoyment by the Bush Administration of their bump in the polls is a direct result of a lie held by half of the American people. A lie deftly designed by this Administration and one it has spent virtually no effort to rectify in the minds of the American people. The Bush Administration will have to answer the question in the debates, 'Was Hussein responsible for the 9/11 attacks?' If he tells the truth, those 52% will feel duped. If he lies, every person who holds facts and evidence to be the cornerstones of reality will pounce upon the President as a liar and a cheat.
Ralph Nader's testing of the waters may not be as absurd as it first seemed. Ralph Nader is almost always ahead of the curve when it comes to exposing government's pulling the wool over the eyes of the people. He knows he cannot win, but, if he can expose the deceipt, he can seriously impair the President's reelection bid. The Green Party and Democratic Party should also follow that lead if defeating this President is the first goal.
The Washington Post notes in an article yesterday entitled, White House Web Scrubbing, that the Administration has been observed scrubbing former statements which no longer look good, accurate, or truthful. This won't make a dent in the public's awareness simply because it is not newsworthy enough to permeate the media.
It will be impossible for the President to avoid the no win answer to the Iraq - 9/11 link, unless he avoids debate altogether. I would not be surprised if that is in fact the strategy the President follows. He will probably state as President he has not the time for politics, he has a country to run. This President is shrewd and politically saavy, and must avoid having to answer for the misunderstanding by the American public which he fostered and nursed for political gain.
11:23:14 PM Google It!
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Friday, December 05, 2003
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Under our current system of government, we no longer have a democracy. Sounds like an outrageous statement doesn't it? But, consider the following. A democracy is a government of the people, whose decisions are made by the people and for the best interests of the majority of the society's people. But what we have today does not meet that definition. The reason is that 1/2 of the eligible voters don't vote, and 1/3 of registered voters are not affiliated with either the Democratic or Republican party, therefore, the Democratic and Republican voters don't even add up to one half of the eligible persons to vote.
I vote. I won’t vote Democratic or Republican. Like the majority of Americans, I will not vote to support the two party system that fails to represent me. I will vote, as I have for decades, with hope. Many would argue that my vote will be wasted, since a vote for a third party or not voting at all, simply results in the maintenance of the two party system with help from the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) controlled by the two major parties.
The winning candidate never represents a majority decision of the people anymore. A plutocracy is a government run by the wealthy. An oligarchy is a government run by a small number of the population. Given that our government's officials are elected by a minority of adults in the country, and their decisions are bought and sold through compromise of wealthy special interest lobbyists and donors as a few hours spent watching C-Span makes evident, we have a plutocratic oligarchy, not a democracy. We talk democracy to get votes, but, make no mistake; our government's decisions and lawmaking are based on plutocratic lobbyists representing an oligarchy of corporate, business and wealthy individual's interests.
So, why bother to vote if you are not a Democrat or Republican, eh? My reason is that I believe in democracy and democracy demands of its citizens that they be informed and that they vote. I feel a responsibility to the future of my daughter's generation to do my part to further democracy regardless of how futile it may be. Also, as long as I vote, I can hope that others will too.
However, I am convinced that our growing plutocratic oligarchy will collapse under its own weight of corruption and failure as democracy. Precisely because 1/2 of the eligible voters don't vote, and 1/3 of registered voters are not affiliated with either the Democratic or Republican party, the minority Democratic and Republican parties will be successful and their very success in elections will insure their inability to change their non-democracy ways.
This plutocratic oligarchy will fail, in time, and then, and only then, can we reinvent democracy that will work in these modern times. The current system of the worst government that special interest money can produce cannot be undone as long as the two party strangle hold on the election system (FEC) remains. However, if the Democratic and/or Republican party recognizes that the system is headed toward collapse and revolution, they may "see the light" and reform their non-democratic ways. That would likely be too late, however, for once they realize it, so will the majority of citizens in the country and then, why should the citizens believe either of the two major parties who brought the system to the brink of revolution?
Chinese history, especially in the 20th century, teaches that revolution and servicing the interests of the majority of the population are the only options for a government. Mao Tse Tung reined over the revolution that was necessary to unify the nation. Subsequent leaders have diligently worked to represent more and more of the people's interests to the point of now endorsing democratic changes at a measured pace. They know that if the future of China does not rest in some form of democracy, it will result in yet another revolution.
Our government under the two party system must choose to reinstate democracy of, by, and for the people, or face revolution in the end. I can find no viable third parties that could return, through acquisition of office, democracy to the American people. Therefore, I can only look forward to the two parties changing their successful winning strategies (extremely unlikely) or revolution. By voting Green or Independent candidates, I further the cause of one or the other of the possible outcomes for our system returning to the principle of government of, by and for the majority of the people.
Revolution in America? Not possible, right? Not with a middle class. That has been the thinking of scholars and philosophers in the 20th century. But, this is the 21st century and the middle class that believed in, supported, and were largely fulfilled by, the two party system, no longer exists. The majority of adults are frustrated with government, and its constant reversals of policy which provide no long term stability, planning, or implementation of solutions which can only be fulfilled by long term adherence to those solutions. In addition, more and more middle class Americans fail to see any positive return from their taxes that even comes close to the value of the work they put in to earn those tax dollars.
This kind of frustration, lack of faith and belief in the government, and disappointment which is becoming a majority sentiment, will only grow. Revolutions are not born on a day when millions wake up on the same morning and say, that's it, I have had enough. Revolutions are like a garden. Frustration, disappointment, and anger are the soil, fertilizer, water, and sunlight. All that is left to make something grow, is a seed. The seed will be a spokesperson with access to a mass audience, who taps into the soil and says, today is the day. Today we plant. Like Mao Tse Tung, the right person, at the right time, with access to enough disenchanted population, is all that is needed to start a revolution when the people are ready to demand change. Whether it be peaceful or violent, it will come if the soil bed is prepared. And we are preparing it today.
In my daughter's generation, or her daughter's generation, if the two party system does not alter it's selling of government to the highest bidding special interests, if the government does not find a way to unite a majority of citizens behind it, over the next generation or two or three, a revolution will be inevitable.
Thus, my vote for Green or Natural Law Party, or simply not voting at all, is a vote to further either a wake up call to the two party system to act as a democracy, or a revolution. And that is a vote I believe is very worthwhile casting, either way.
1:02:51 AM Google It!
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Friday, November 14, 2003
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by David Remer - Political News & Analysis
We usually associate one party government with fascism, authoritarianism, or fantasy utopia wherein all persons are healthy, happy, and equal in all ways that matter. In a democracy however, it is very possible to have a one party government which does not meet any of the above criteria. We are witnessing it now in large part. A one party government is not necessarily a cause for alarm about our democracy. Today, however, the stage is set for a potential threat to our democracy as great as that witnessed by the Civil War.
The U.S. currently has a Republican President and a Republican majority in both the houses of Congress, though by a slim margin in the Senate. It is only the slim margin in the Senate which still permits filibuster power by the Democrats, and the split Supreme Court with equal liberal and conservative Justices and one swing Justice who votes on either side depending on the issue, which prevents the U.S. from factually being a one party government. This is not historically unique in the U.S. however; during periods in the 20th century when Democrats constituted a near one party government, the Democratic Party itself was healthily diverse with its own conservative, centrist, and liberal wings of the party.
Beginning with the Reagan years and accelerating through the Clinton years, a polarization has taken place between the Conservatives and Liberals. This polarization has resulted in large part with the loss of the more liberal wing of the Republican Party and the conservative wing of Democratic Party. In addition, there has been a growth in two minor parties, the Green Party and the Libertarian Party, as well as a significant growth in what is termed Independent voters who do not constitute a party at all. To the Green Party many ultra liberals who abandoned the Democratic Party have migrated. And to the Libertarian Party some of the ultra conservatives who abandoned the Republican Party have migrated.
The current state of all this migration has resulted in roughly 1/3 of registered voters being Democrat, 1/3 being Republican, and 1/3 falling into the Libertarian, Green, third party, and Independent camps. Also, it has left the Democratic Party with little more than very liberal and somewhat liberal makeup. And similarly this has left the Republican Party with little more than somewhat conservative and very conservative supporters. One other significant group of citizens should be mentioned here, namely, the disaffected non-voters who for a variety of reasons do not participate in the political process. This non-voters group is rapidly approaching equal numbers with all registered voters. But for the purpose of examining one party vs. multiple party government, they are relatively of little consequence save for their growing numbers.
Thus, when it comes to elections, the U.S. has only two predominant parties vying for office, the liberal Democrats and the conservative Republicans. And issues such as abortion, socialized programs like public education, health insurance, and social security, regulation of industries and business, foreign affairs, and wealth distribution or accrual through taxation have become very polarized issues between the two parties. This polarization between two such equally represented parties sets the stage for a scenario which could constitute a very real threat American democracy.
Whether Democrat or Republican, one party domination in the executive and legislative branches of government will represent the views, and satisfy the requirements of government, by little more than 1/3 of the citizenry of the nation. This is not majority rule. Currently, the Republican Party fails to satisfy the expectations of government by almost all Democrats, all Greens, most Libertarians, a significant portion of independent voters and a significant number of non-voters. The situation would be the same today if the Democrats held control of government instead of Republicans. This fact alone however is insufficient to result in a threat to democracy. Two other components are required to convert this situation into a threat to democracy
The first is sustained one party domination for a period of 8 or more years, Should the Iraq situation improve, even modestly by summer of 2004, and should the economy show improvement, even if only marginally, the Republicans may easily hold control of government for an additional 4 years. This is significant, because the tension and frustration level by non-Republicans will swell. Partisanship will become ever more vitriolic, and bitter. With a minority party ruling for another presidential election cycle, the fear of no end to such one party rule will manifest itself in a host of ways all to the detriment of unseating the ruling party.
The Democratic Party will incur internal dissent as competing views and strategies for overcoming in the next election cycle reach a fevered pitch. Contributions and affiliation with the Democratic Party will drop off as more and more citizens view the Democratic Party as ineffective and even obstructionist. While this may result in growing defections to third parties and independent voter status, the effect will only entrench the Republican hold on government in following election cycles. Thus the ability through the democratic election process to unseat a minority ruling party will diminish.
The second and final component required to constitute a real threat to democracy in our land is for government through action or inaction, to cause, or be held responsible for, a serious blow to the quality of life of a large minority of citizens outside the party holding power. It does not take a crystal ball to recognize a myriad of situations, economic, international, or domestic which could bring this about. Following are only a few examples. North Korean escalation of nuclear militarism. Outbreak of U.S. developed biological weapon like the anthrax released not long ago. Prolonged escalation and growth of terrorism. Growth of the American anarchist movement. Failure by the American system to successfully make the transition away from manufacturing. Attempts by the U.S., EU, Russia or China to militarize responses to changes in economic trading inequities. A series of serious terrorist attacks on U.S. citizens. Or something as simple as the growth of a black market based on identity theft from citizen’s mailboxes all across America.
With a one party government which we already have in large part and are likely to continue for another 4 years, and any events like those listed above, we could generate the kind of patriotic movement by unrepresented Americans who demand revolution to take down the one party unresponsive government in the hopes of installing one which will be far more representative and responsive to majority demands and needs. Since the electoral process will be unable to change the one party system, only one option will be left to those demanding change. That option may only be that chosen by the colonialists to throw off the yoke of the British one King system of rule.
The stage is set. November of 2004 will tell if the one party actors remain on that stage. And all that remains for a revolutionary demise of our democracy will be an ill fated event that demonstrates to a large minority of citizens that the one party system has failed and will continue to fail generations to come, if citizens do not take action to alter the course of a minority one party rule in America. The British regarded the colonialist activists as terrorists. American history judged them great patriots. No doubt, if this play is presented as written above, the activists will be called both, and the polarization in America will be devastating until resolution is brought forth.
10:51:41 AM Google It!
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Thursday, October 16, 2003
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by David R. Remer Political News & Analysis
Secrecy in government is antithetical to democracy. Our Constitution carefully attempts to make government employee’s actions, from the President on down, accountable to the people, or their elected representatives. Yet, in this complicated world where evil intentions are planned and executed in secret, our government must have secrecy as a tool to be used to fend off harm planned for American citizens, both at home and abroad. Thus, the issue of secrecy in government is not whether our democracy should permit it or not; the issue is how much secrecy and how much oversight?
In the headlines this week is a BBC article entitled 'Justice denied’ at Guantanamo. This article raises the issue of whether the Supreme Court of our land should review the legality of holding 100’s of individuals, incommunicado and indefinitely, without being charged with any crimes, without judicial review of the justification for their being jailed, without legal representation, and without speedy trial and determination of their fate. U.S. law permits such events to take place during times of war. Currently, the detention is legal. But, as our history shows many times over, legal does not mean right, nor does legal mean that a law conforms to the checks and balances designed into our Constitution.
The recent issue of leaks allegedly from the Whitehouse, exposing a CIA undercover operative as a means of obtaining political retribution, seriously raises the stakes in the issue of government secrecy. For if the serious leaks like this now occur, the argument will and is being made that secrecy must be even more secret. That is to say, that even fewer representatives of the people, if any, should have access to what is secret. If this argument is acted upon, the government will become less accountable to the people for its actions and pose a serious undermining of the Constitution of the U.S.
In the 103rd Congress, a study was done on secrecy in government, and the PDF summary of that document is highly recommended reading for all voters in America. In the summary, our representatives conclude,
The best way to ensure that secrecy is respected, and that the most important secrets remain secret, is for secrecy to be returned to its limited but necessary role. Secrets can be protected more effectively if secrecy is reduced overall.
The Freedom of Information Act, (FOIA) was signed into law on July 4, 1964, by President L.B. Johnson. A short and easily read history of the FOIA through 1996 was issued by the Society of Professional Journalists. Following is an excerpt of great importance to the subject of government secrecy:
The act had only one day to go before dying of presidential neglect in the form of a pocket veto.
Hardly an auspicious beginning for a law that spawned parallel "sunshine laws" in all 50 states. A law that has served as a model for nations around the world trying to make government more accessible and accountable to their citizens. A law that set out to make manifest the Jeffersonian principle of an informed citizenry.
Thirty years later, the friends of FOIA in official Washington remain few and far between and the complaints familiar: The FOIA is an unwelcome drain on scarce resources. It is overused by prisoners and aliens to overtax the system. It is abused by lawyers to circumvent court discovery rules. It is employed by businesses to gain unfair advantage over competitors. It is exploited by journalists to invade personal privacy and endanger national security.
Those complaints aside, the FOIA has compelled federal agencies to yield millions of documents relating to government operations and performance. Every week, a news organization, scholar or public-interest group somewhere reports information of significance to public health or safety or good governance - based on material gleaned from FOIA requests.
The history of the FOIA reveals an interesting political fact regarding secrecy in government. A Democrat signed the bill into law. In the link above it is reported that the FOIA
worked more fitfully and slowly during the 1980s, when administration policy confounded much of the act’s intentions.
Then, in October of 1993, President Clinton issued a memo to department and agency heads mandating a new attitude toward the FOIA. "The act is a vital part of the participatory system of government," Clinton said to the officials. "I am committed to enhancing its effectiveness in my administration."
At the same time, Attorney General Janet Reno reversed a Department of Justice policy established in 1981. She said that the department no longer would defend an agency’s denial of an FOIA request merely because there was a "substantial legal basis" for doing so.
Today, again under a Republican administration, Eweek reports on the Privacy Threat Index (PTI) stating: "Used to track the growing threat to privacy from expanding government surveillance, the PTI level currently is at orange--or "high"--because of ongoing invasive search techniques used by the government." Concluding Eweek’s article is the following statement: "When government employees are able to cloak their work in secrecy, the threat not only to privacy but also to civil rights must be made a top priority."
Under President Bush’s administration, The Patriot Act, and it’s proposed enhancement Patriot Act II, reflect a greater role for secrecy in government, less accountability by the people’s representatives, and therefore, a greater potential threat to American liberties. With secrecy comes abuse of power. What is the one thing all perpetrators of crime seek? Keeping their identity secret, is the answer. Under the Patriot Act, government employees are to varying degrees free to pursue the application of the powers of their office while cloaking their identity and their actions with the Patriot Act. Already journalists are uncovering alleged abuses of the Patriot Act by government officials. CBS News reports in an article entitled Patriot Act Abuses Seen,
Over the six-month period that ended in June, the Justice Department's inspector general found 34 complaints of rights violations that appeared credible, reports The New York Times. Some of the charges have yet to be fully investigated. Not all the complaints concerned physical abuse.
The report has been provided to Congress and will soon be publicly released. The complaints concern the way the Justice Department has enforced the 2001 Patriot Act, a law passed in the immediate aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks that granted wider powers to federal law enforcement officers to conduct surveillance and detain immigrants.
An 2600 News article reporting a photographer’s tale of abuse under the Patriot Act provides an eloquent example of how abuse of the Act can take place. Whether one believes the photographer’s account or not, his story highlights perfectly how safeguards against such abuse are needed. For if his account is true, the powers of the Patriot Act provide the means for abusers to conceal their abuses. It is no safeguard that the Inspector General for the Justice Department, charged with investigating abuses of the Patriot Act, is employed by the very Justice Department that exercises the powers of the Patriot Act. The potential for cover up of abuse constitutes a real threat to civil liberties of American citizens.
The threats posed by growing secrecy in our government may be very long-lived. The war on terrorism following the 9/11 attacks and which spawned the Patriot Act, is one that the U.S. will be fighting for decades. The root causes of terrorism like fundamentalism, patriotism, a global marketplace for small arms and explosive devices, poverty, lack of education and sustainable living standards, will not be quickly or easily eradicated if they ever are. Therefore, the war on terrorism is one we will be engaged in for at least the next generation or two of young Americans. Therefore, the threats and potential for abuses of our liberties and civil rights enjoyed prior to 9/11, shall be with us for decades.
Americans are divided on this issue. Many feel that some liberty lost is a small price to pay in the prevention of catastrophic lethal and maiming attacks upon American citizens. Others feel that life is inherently dangerous, driving vehicles, walking the neighborhood, spending time in a hospital, or visiting a local convenience store at the wrong time while a robbery commences. These may argue that there never can be such a level of security as to protect Americans from harm and that the threat of abuse toward, and loss of, civil liberties, constitutes as great a threat upon their sense of security in America as terrorist acts do for those willing to sacrifice freedom.
If history since the signing of the Freedom of Information Act is any indication, those who vote on this issue alone, and who fear terrorists will likely want to vote Republican. Those who fear abuse of power and threat to American freedoms and civil liberties will likely want to vote Democratic or Green. There is no question secrecy can enhance police power. There is also no question that secrecy is the most sought after goal of those who would circumvent laws and abuse power. It is an issue Americans may want to consider in the voting booths in November of 2004.
10:35:08 AM
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Thursday, October 02, 2003
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by David Remer Political News & Analysis
I received an email regarding a news item I posted elsewhere, entitled Chinese Girl's Toil Brings Pain, Not Riches. The story reflects inequities between standards in the work force in the U.S. and the plight of Chinese workers. The email claimed we should start making plans for war with China to free those people under that horrible Communist system.
Absent a history of the Industrial Revolution in the U.S. and rise of the super capitalists from the close of the Civil War through to the stock market crash of 1929, it is easy to view the oncoming interaction between the U.S. and China in such black and white simplistic terms as exemplified by the author of that email. Absent an understanding of the cultural and demographic differences between the U.S. and China, it is possible to view China now and in the future as a greater threat than the USSR during the post WWII era. Should a President today, or in the future, fall prey to such ignorance, the world as we know it may be lost.
China has over 1 billion people, more than 3 times the U.S. population. Just a few decades ago, China was largely agricultural with 100's of millions of self sustaining farms and villages. Life expectancy was far lower than in the U.S., life was hard and the monetary system did not even reach the majority of those self sustaining farms. In just 60 years China has come from virtual medieval standards of living into the 20th century. This kind of growth in the U.S. was accomplished through sweatshops in the garment district that spanned decades. Through sharecropping labor that just met subsistence living standards. The U.S. brutalized children in the labor force, breaking their backs and their spirits during the industrial age of the North and in the coal mines of the South.
This history was all part of the transition in the U.S. from an agriculturally based economy to an industrial based economy. Such a history of industrialization was not unique to America. Great Britain and most of the modern free European nations on the west side of the iron curtain experienced similar exploitation of the work force in their transition to an industrial economy.
While it is heartbreaking to read of child labor in China especially through the eyes of a young girl, we must not forget that our own prosperity and burgeoning middle class with comfortable 41.2 hour work weeks and two cars, home, DVD players and PC's, resulted from moving the agricultural workers into industrial jobs and using labor as a cheap consumable to grow the capitalist enterprises that would employ ever more and more farm workers in the cities. It is just such a transition that is taking place in China but at an accelerated rate, since, they have almost a magnitude of order more people to move from the farm into productive industrial and technological positions than the U.S. had during its industrial growth period.
China has no other option but to make this transition from agricultural to industrial/technological economy. Millions of Chinese were starving a little more than a decade ago. China faced another revolution and civil war had it not laid plans to move the people in China into the 21st century with all of the benefits that a modern economy can offer. The people of China are demanding more freedom, more prosperity, and more security. China's government has made believers of its people and for the most part, the people have faith and trust in their government to guide their nation into the 21st Century world marketplace. It is difficult, but, the Chinese people are seeing more democracy in Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Singapore. And more democracy is promised. They are seeing more jobs and money is becoming common place even in many rural villages.
It is a mistake, a very great and grave mistake, for Americans to superimpose their current worker and work place values on China as it experiences the same transition today that the U.S. has now placed deep in its history books. There is no question, that current trade imbalances between the U.S. and many nations undergoing this transition from agriculture to industrial and technological economies are hurting the job growth in America and forcing the U.S. to give up its hold on manufacturing for the world marketplace. To politicize and base foreign policy on the negative trade imbalances in America is easy game for politicians. It is seductively easy for politicians to use the trade imbalances as a means of creating the illusion of predatorial third world nations and painting American workers as victims. Such an illusion will not however lead to any solution for American workers. The third world’s only resource to enter the global marketplace and the 21st Century is cheap labor. They must exploit it or cease to exist economically.
Further, if such an illusion is used to create a hostile foreign policy toward China, which has a well developed nuclear arsenal and is eyeing military objectives in space, a new era of nuclear brinkmanship will inevitably result; one which the world may not survive. Americans must make intelligent choices at the ballot box in November of 2004 and beyond. And American political leaders must yield manufacturing to other growing countries since, we can no longer be competitive in that arena. The U.S. must make its own transition from manufacturing to technology, innovation, and services which can be marketed globally.
It is one thing for the American people to elect political pundits who have no experience in government or Hollywood stars with lots of money to be Governor of California. The world will survive a poor choice there. It is quite another issue should the American people so cavalierly vote in a President with a similar lack of credentials. The world, including the U.S., may not survive it.
3:47:29 AM Google It!
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Tuesday, September 16, 2003
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This article might be more aptly entitled 'A Perfect Economic Storm in the making'. A quick look at the economy of the past and present paints a picture of the future for the economy in which 3 current dynamics shall converge sometime around 2015 to deal a devastating blow to the American economy. Nothing taking place at the levels of government today indicate that America is trying to alter the course or even prepare for the storm ahead.
Past, present, and future.
PAST. President Reagan stimulated the economy in the 1980's on the back of huge deficits and large national debt according to the Office of Management and Budget. (See Table 1 at end of article.) President G.H. Bush had to renege on his promise of "No New Taxes" in order to stem the mushrooming deficits and debt which portended stagflation if left unabated. During the Clinton years, the deficits were brought down to zero and even began producing a surplus, when global recessionary pressures such as high interest rates, speculative investments, massive accounting frauds, and the bust of the technology stock market bubble occurred near the end of President Clinton's term.
President G.W. Bush entered office facing the exposure of the accounting frauds, a stock market already in decline, and a mild world wide recession nearing its end. He was later dealt a war on terrorism which he arguably could not avoid. President Bush however, unwisely expanded miltary activities into Iraq ballooning the defense budgets and creating a hugely expensive need for nation building at American expense that need not have been undertaken at all, or, at least could have been shared at some future time with the other nations of the world.
PRESENT. Today, the recession is well behind us. The Federal Reserve acted quickly enough and repeatedly enough in lowering interest rates to not only stall the recession, but, today its effects in conjunction with corporate downsizing and improved productivity gains have actually produced an economy which is growing at a modest rate of between 2.3 and 2.7 percent. Fourth quarter 2002 rate was 1.4%, first quarter 2003, was 2.4%, and third quarter results are expected to show even more improvement. The 2002 and 2003 growth rates were also modestly stimulated by the Republican tax cuts, though a measure of how much is yet to be determined. Economists generally agree that consumer demand and growth in exports are the key ingredients to any further growth in the economy from this point forward.
However, the end of the recession did not end the job losses. MoneyCNN.com reports:
Payrolls shrank by 93,000 jobs outside the farm sector, the Labor Department said, after falling a revised 49,000 jobs in July. Economists had expected payrolls to grow, according to a Reuters poll. The number of jobs lost was the biggest since 151,000 in March.
Without an end to payroll losses, the end of the recession is meaningless to the 8.79 Million unemployed workers in America, today. Note the following from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities:
The number of unemployed (8.79 million) is at the highest level in nearly a decade.
The number of jobs is at the lowest level in 41 months; that is, at a lower point than at any other time during the current slowdown.
The rate at which people are exhausting their regular unemployment benefits before they find a new job was at its highest level ever recorded in February and at its second highest level ever recorded in March. (The latest "exhaustion rate" data are for March; the data go back to 1973.)
This kind of massive unemployment in America reflects missed opportunities by the Administration and Congress. Unless employment can be dramatically increased, the consumer's demand for goods and services will not be able to sustain the current economic growth rate, modest as it is.
Currently, the Homeland Defense agency and the first responders under its control are estimated to lack approximately 100 million dollars. There is debate over whether the budget already allocated the funds and the funds have not been received by the persons needing them, or the budget itself was under funded. It is clear however, that there are a myriad of needs for equipment and training that continue to go unfulfilled. Hiring by the Homeland Defense department is an opportunity to meet the needs of both the department and persons needing employment. An opportunity currently not availed.
America's infrastructure including roads, bridges, and drinking water systems are in desperate need of maintenance and upgrading, according to the American Society of Civil Engineers. The massive 220 billion dollar infusion to private industry for building up America's infrastructure in 1998 has not put a dent in the D+ rating of the nation's infrastructure as of 2001. America could certainly hire and train tens of thousands of workers to rebuild this infrastructure and get a valuable return on it's employment investment. Another opportunity for employment missed.
Qualified teachers and health care workers are in desperate demand all across the nation. Yet, as long as the bulk of health care worker wages are just above minimum wage and teachers make little more than that, it makes little sense for the unemployed to invest in college to retrain for these positions. The U.S. government could target and support private industry in hiring and training the newly unemployed for these positions. It also could provide tax incentives or tuition grants for the unemployed to retrain in these areas, making such a choice an economically viable one for the unemployed. However, this is yet another employment opportunity being ignored.
Manufacturing jobs lost in the last recession, by and large, will never return. The productivity gains enjoyed by American companies will insure this is so. American companies, while laying off workers have also been moving manufacturing overseas to lower wage markets, and investing in capital equipment and machinery to replace human workers.
Congress could increase the minimum wage to a living wage. This one act alone could result in placing hundreds of thousands of unemployed into needed teaching, medical, and homeland defense positions over the next few years. The time for such a move is when companies are profitable, the economy is growing, interest rates are low and inflation is very low as it is today. A phased in minimum wage increase of $2 per hour over 5 years could add the human capital resource to small business and large corporations without stifling growth and add the employment jolt the economy is going to need to maintain the rate of recovery experienced to date. But, this is another employment opportunity that will not even be debated, let alone passed by this Congress.
THE FUTURE The movie, The Perfect Storm, was partly about an historical convergence of a hurricane, a cold front, and a low pressure center, if memory serves, which created a storm of such magnitude that it could not be entered and survived by normal vessels. Such a storm is growing on the economic front and the convergence of three main trends will occur in the next 8 to 12 years resulting in a wave of devastation across the American economy and possibly the world economy. The three trends are growing U.S. national debt, the retirement of the baby boom generation, and the incredible growth of foreign economies.
The United States National debt, now approaching 7 trillion dollars, will be in the 10 to 12 trillion dollar range in 10 to 12 years. Tax cuts in conjunction with deficit spending of nearly a half trillion dollars a year by the President and Congress are responsible for this debt. For a full discussion on this topic see another article posted here on Public Debt. It is enough to say for the moment that 10 to 12 trillion dollars in public debt places incredible pressure on interest rates. Lofty interest rates hurt citizens and American companies alike. Such interest rates raise the costs of production and the cost of living for all Americans and results in the most wasteful form of inflation. Inflated costs due to high interest rates are passed on to the consumer and lowers the buying power of the wage earner's dollar.
Already Americans are experiencing a lower quality of life than their parents enjoyed. A simple measure of this fact is based on 1 blue collar wage earner, 40 years ago, could make a sufficient income for a family of four and provide a middle class home, a car, home appliances, health insurance, and accrue a retirement package based on a pension plan and social security. To experience that same quality of life today requires 2 family wage earners to maintain the same standard at comparable wages.
The retirement of the baby boom generation is going to result in a demand upon the federal government for social security benefits that will be unprecedented. A smaller work force paying into the social security trust fund at the very time that a burgeoning retirement generation begins to draw benefits will inevitably cause the U.S. government to run deficits in order to meet the social security obligation. And it will need to run those deficits for approximately 18 to 24 years. If these social security deficits are added to an already established 10 to 12 trillion dollars of debt, interest rates will skyrocket. The effect may even cause concern over America's capacity to meet the debt obligation and cause foreign investors to discontinue investing in the American debt. This could result in a devastating blow to the American economy and its economic future.
Alternatively, the U.S. government may declare the social security system bankrupt and discontinue payments to retired citizens under social security. However, the result to the economy would not be lessened, since such a move would remove consumer income from millions of Americans and again deal a devastating blow to the economy by way of greatly reduced consumer demand and thus productivity of American business. This of course does not take into account the social cost of turning millions of retired citizens into paupers unable to afford health care, housing, or transportation.
The growth of foreign economies is the third condition for the perfect economic storm which appears at present to be inescapable. The Asian Pacific Rim countries including China, Japan, Taiwan, and Korea, is coming into economic growth that is unrivaled in these nations in the 20th century. While the United States economy is growing at less than 3 percent, the Chinese economy is growing at a year on year rate of 8.2%. An excellent source of current Chinese economic conditions can be found at the Embassy of Switzerland web site. Predictions in the past of China's economic growth have all been underestimated and China continues its growth through world wide recessions and internal social difficulties. In 1992 it was predicted China would become the world's leading economy by 2030. This estimate too was underestimated. Previous analysis always included impediments to China's growth brought on by social upheaval. However, earlier this year, when protests broke out in Hong Kong regarding the installation of new security laws, analysts saw their predicted impediments coming to fruition. But, they were wrong. The Chinese government later this year announced they were rescinding all such new security laws in deference to the people of Hong Kong.
It is a mistake for analysts to assume the Chinese government is going to allow even its own political ideology to stand in the way of its economic growth and future status as economic super power in the world. There is a dream being transferred from generation to generation of politburo members. That dream is of supplanting the United States as the preeminent economic power in the world. China's fulfillment of that dream has continued to dash analyst's predictions of social tension blockading China's economic growth. Some analysts, learning from the mistakes of their predecessors, are now predicting China could rival the U.S. economically as soon as 2015 instead of 2030 or beyond. See table 2 at the end of this article for current statistics GDP and population for the U.S., Japan, and China.
However, China's dream only need be partially fulfilled in order to contribute to the economic perfect storm. With it's mobilization of rural citizens to urban environments and jobs, China is a powerhouse of relatively cheap labor. Its physical boundaries are home to vast natural resources. And China's manufacturing is already taking extremely large numbers of jobs from around the world for its own. While China is rapidly developing its industrial capacity, it is also investing in its technical development. This year China entered negotiations with Taiwan on trade agreements that will serve as a spring board for China's technological development. Far into the visible future, China will continue to grow as the United States struggles to keep its status quo.
The Perfect Economic Storm will be fully felt around 2015 in the United States. Global market share of industrial and technological output will have shifted from the U.S. to the Asian Pacific Rim. The government (i.e. the people) will be on the verge of bankruptcy with national debt equaling a full year of gross domestic product, or 10 to 12 trillion dollars. Taxes will have to skyrocket in order for the U.S. to maintain a valid investment rating for foreign investors. And Congress will have no choice but to drastically cut spending in areas previously never considered as discretionary, like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, education and very possibly defense spending.
If the U.S. fails in either of these endeavors, its investment rating will plummet much as we have seen California's credit rating fall to levels requiring its promise to pay high interest rates on any future borrowing. A fall in America's investment rating will simply dig the economic hole deeper and make the financial and economic burden of today's school children an employee's nightmare as they have to shoulder high unemployment rates, steep payroll taxes, and lowered wages and purchasing power from their dollar. Crime will rise as it always does during hard economic times, and social services funded by federal, state, and local governments will be hard to find.
There are remedies to prevent this convergence. Taking back the tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans will help reduce the deficits over the next 10 years and thus lower the projected national debt. Regulating the pharmaceutical industries and gradually shifting medical research and development from the private sector to America's colleges and Universities will greatly reduce the costs of health care in years to come and generate royalty revenues that come back to fund the Universities and Colleges, thus lowering taxes on education costs on citizens.
Other options include: Creating a retirement incentive for retiring at age 70 will reduce the load on the Social Security system. Ceasing the development of star wars technology will save billions and halting any further research and development of advanced weapons of mass destruction will save even more. Backing off our preemptory strike policy will also save billions by making it more conscionable for UN countries to share the cost of the war on terrorism, a war that will continue well past the economic perfect storm. Dropping all American trade barriers against other nations for one year and demanding that all other nations who wish to trade with the U.S. do the same within that one year period or lose trade with America for the following five years. This measure alone would stem the decades old trade deficits on America's accounting books and set an unprecedented level playing field for truly free trade in the world for decades to come.
None of this however, will take place unless the voters demand it at the polls in 2004. Since, that is unlikely, we should all begin to sock away now those resources we are going to need to weather the economic perfect storm that is looming on the horizon. And pray for those who have nothing to sock away, for they will be the first victims of the Perfect Economic Storm.
TABLE 1
Year Deficit Debt Debt % of GDP
1979 - $40,183 - $828,923 34%
1980 - $73,835 - $908,503 34
1981 - $78,976 - $994,298 34
1982 - $127,989 - $1,136,798 36
1983 - $207,818 - $1,371,164 41
1984 - $185,388 - $1,564,110 42
1985 - $212,334 - $1,816,974 46
1986 - $221,245 - $2,120,082 50
1987 - $149,769 - $2,345,578 53
1988 - $155,187 - $2,600,760 54
1989 - $152,481 - $2,867,538 55
U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Historical Tables, annual.
Table 2
July 1 2002 GDP per capita est. and Population (source: CIA World Factbook)
U.S. $37,600 290,342,554(July 2003 est.) GDP 10,916,880,030,400
Japan $30,000 127,214,499 (July 2003 est.) GDP 3,816,434,970,000
China $4,400 1,286,975,468 (July 2003 est.) GDP 5,662,692,059,200
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© Copyright 2004 David Remer.
Last update: 3/3/2004; 2:09:44 PM.
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