Thursday, February 19, 2004

Economnics in depth
Posted here Thursday, February 19, 2004 at 9:50:09 PM    

Looking at economics more deeply

But all that fancy thinking aimed at ending the Great Depression by "making the economy work" was not where Musgrave made his contribution. Instead he went back to the beginning of economics, to Adam Smith, to reexamine the underpinnings of public finance.

Smith had noted that that were certain services that, while highly useful to the individual, could not be undertaken profitably on an individual basis. In certain areas, government would have to take a hand, providing defense, justice, education and various public works such as highways and bridges.

Yet for 150 years after Smith, this focus on governments’ productive contribution was more or less completely ignored by English economists. They focused instead on analyzing the various effects that taxes would have on the "Invisible Hand" of competition. Their subject was "the market." Government entered the picture as a means of redressing "market failure."

....

Meanwhile, of course, as anyone who has followed the politics of the last thiry years knows full well, the pendulum swung back. The preoccupation with market failures that lay at the heart of the two great movements in operational economics in the 1930s imperfect competition and Keynesian macroeconomics -- gradually gave way to an equally avid interest in the problems of the public sector.

Civil servants became bureaucrats. The ways in which interest groups mnipulate democratic processes to serve their own ends took center stage.

Which leads directly (and finally!) to Musgrave’s second remarkable contribution to 20th century economics. In 1998, Hans-Werner Sinn, the leading economist at the University of Munich, invited Musgrave and his arch-rival in the study of political economy, James Buchanan, father of the relentlessly skeptical study of "public choice," to a carefully organized five-day debate.

The scholars took turns stating their positions. They responded to one another. They took questions from the floor. Then they restated their views more narrowly. The results were published in 1999 as Public Finance and Public Choice: Two Contrasting Visions of the State. Their debate was a textbook example of what psychologist Daniel Kahneman recently called "adversarial collaboration." So useful are both lenses for different purposes that it is not easy to form an opinion about who "won."

It is, however, very likely that the lectures are the most important delivered at the University of Munich since the great Max Weber gave his farewell addresses on politics and science there in 1918. Long after the results of the next election have become old news the next 40 years’ elections the exchange between Musgrave and Buchanan will still be fresh.

By then, of course, the frontier of formalization in economics will have moved on. Concepts that are difficult to state concisely today will have found expression, just as Musgrave’s insights on public good provision in 1938 were given a crystal-clear formulation by Samuelson in 1954.

What are the chances that some young scholar eventually will succeed in writing down the intuition that Musgrave kept alive through a combination of literary and formal analysis all these years?

That a purely individualistic framework is insufficient for understanding the possibilities of politics? That some place in the model must be reserved for community’s claims? That interpersonal comparisons of welfare in some degree eventually must be undertaken again? That the economists’ task must be to envisage a good society and a moral state?

What are the chances? On the basis of history, pretty good, I would say.

David Warsh

The Economic Principals Project is sponsored by Sabre Foundation


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Nussbaum on music and cognition
Posted here Thursday, February 19, 2004 at 9:49:37 AM    

Reading Martha Nussbaum's Upheavals of  Thought, the most recent in her series of books bringing the emotional life into philosophy.

What we need, then, is an account that preserves the cognitive and bolic complexity of musical experience, while refusing to treat the music as a mere means to a cognition that is extramusical in nature. Page 265.


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facts about money
Posted here Thursday, February 19, 2004 at 8:56:21 AM    

also overheard..

First, there is the simple raw evidence of market data. The dollar seems to make new lows against the euro every day; the dollar declined 20% against the euro in 2003. It also reached an eleven-year low against the pound and a ten-year low against the Canadian dollar. These are not isolated examples, but recurring strands of a larger fabric of soft comparisons against foreign currencies. From its peak in 2001, the U.S. dollar index, which charts the currency against a basket of six major foreign currencies, has declined more than 25%.

Another clue is found in the gold market. The yellow metal had a tremendous year in 2003 and now trades north of $410 per ounce - a level not seen in more than eight years - and is up more than 25% from one year ago. Gold is up 60% from its low of $255 per ounce in 1999.


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Early agricutlure led by the symbolism.
Posted here Thursday, February 19, 2004 at 8:46:00 AM    

Humanities research keeps tearing into the fabric of a more naive imaginative materialism.

Jacques Cauvin's _The Birth of the Gods and the Origins of Agriculture_?

http://books.cambridge.org/0521651352.htm

The book is both a survey of recent archaeological research on the onset of the Levantine Neolithic and a new interpretation of those results. The interpretation argues that the present state of the science refutes long held theories which identify the sources of agriculture in material and climactic stress. The data, it is further argued, instead suggests that agriculture arose as an element of a transformation of human consciousness which also expressed itself in a 'revolution of symbols'.


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Movies and Bush fate.
Posted here Thursday, February 19, 2004 at 8:26:12 AM    

also overheard

As well as The Passion, there are other current movies that may be trial balloons for the 'sacrifice' of our leaders, Blair as well as Bush I'd reckon. Kill Bill Volumes 1 and 2 are both about a woman exacting a bloody revenge against the man who used to be her leader. Also, Star Wars Episode 3, which is currently scheduled for release in the summer of 2005, deals with Annakin Skywalker finally turning to the 'dark side' and becoming Darth Vader. I.e. someone who was previously a 'good guy' now becomes the most evil man in the universe! Maybe a similar fate awaits George W Bush?

The ideas are certainly in the air. what will a desperate Bush do? Give up? I would love to be part of that Hollywood world that is smart about the future. The conversations must be fascinating. How organized is the effort to discern trends?


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email pay per..
Posted here Thursday, February 19, 2004 at 8:22:00 AM    

Overheard, this about using the spam problem to allow phone companies to charge for email. Remember, in the market model, everything should be owned by someone.

The Economist has addressed the issue in its edition of February 14, 2004 (Business Section. The article is available on its WWW site for a fee to non-subscribers). In an article entitled "Make 'em pay" (supertitled "The fight against spam", subtitled "The dismal science takes on spam"), the journal suggests that techies have had a go at the problem, then politicians, and now economists are "taking over". Risks readers may recall that Bill Gates said in an interview at the recent World Economic Forum at Davos that certain measures Microsoft favors will get rid of spam in two years.

One of those proposals was a per-mail fee, like postage. The article says that "Sceptics noted that Microsoft could also help by fixing security flaws in its products - the latest confessed to this week - that can be exploited by spammers".

 


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Chalabi on it was ok to lie
Posted here Thursday, February 19, 2004 at 8:15:47 AM    

This is extraordinary for its corruption of language. It also, to my ear, reflects how many in the administration actually see the events. The lack of sensitivity to the world's view is what shocks me.

Chalabi stands by faulty intelligence that toppled Saddam's regime
By Jack Fairweather in Baghdad and Anton La Guardia
(Filed: 19/02/2004)

An Iraqi leader accused of feeding faulty pre-war intelligence to Washington said yesterday his information about Saddam Hussein's weapons, even if discredited, had achieved the aim of persuading America to topple the dictator.

Ahmad Chalabi and his London-based exile group, the Iraqi National Congress, for years provided a conduit for Iraqi defectors who were debriefed by US intelligence agents. But many American officials now blame Mr Chalabi for providing intelligence that turned out to be false or wild exaggerations about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.

 
Ahmad Chalabi: 'we've been entirely successful'

Mr Chalabi, by far the most effective anti-Saddam lobbyist in Washington, shrugged off charges that he had deliberately misled US intelligence. "We are heroes in error," he told the Telegraph in Baghdad.

"As far as we're concerned we've been entirely successful. That tyrant Saddam is gone and the Americans are in Baghdad. What was said before is not important. The Bush administration is looking for a scapegoat. We're ready to fall on our swords if he wants."


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