Charles Fenwick: Florida State

Tropical Depression Four Update 050900Z

Tue, 05 Jul 2005 09:24:02 GMT

At 5 AM EDT the center of tropical depression four was at 12.6 North 64.4 West, 415 miles southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Movement is to the west at 17 mph. Winds are 35 mph and pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 mb).

Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number Two

The depression looks very nice on satellite. The system is forecast to go over Cuba into the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next five days.

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number Two

I will be quite surprised if this is not Tropical Storm Dennis come 11 AM EDT. That would be the earliest ever a fourth tropical storm has formed in the Atlantic basin. The current record is July 7, 1959.

I discussed the 00Z forecast models in an earlier post... see below

FSU Meteorlogists' work may lead to better tracking of hurricanes

Thu, 16 Jun 2005 19:52:43 GMT

Scientists are continually exploring different aspects of hurricanes to increase their understanding of how they behave. Recently, two NASA-funded scientists from Florida State University analyzed ozone levels surrounding hurricanes. Their work could lead to better methods of forecasting the paths of the deadly storms.

In their study, FSU meteorologists Xiaolei Zou and Yonghui Wu found that variations of ozone levels from the surface of the ocean to the upper atmosphere are closely related to the formation, intensification and movement of a hurricane. In studying meteorological data from 12 such storms, Zou and Wu noticed that over an area of 100 miles, the area surrounding each hurricane typically had low levels of ozone from the surface to the top of the storm. Whenever the hurricane intensified, the ozone levels throughout the storm decreased even more.

In addition, when Zou and Wu examined hurricanes using the ozone data, the eye of the storms became very clear. Because forecasters always try to pinpoint the eye of the hurricane, this knowledge will help with locating a storm's exact position and possibly lead to better tracking.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center (NHC) is the agency that issues hurricane forecasts. Of the 12 storms analyzed, the ozone data and the NHC official report differed on the mean distance between the estimated eye by less than 18 miles during the most intense stage of the storms. When Zou and Wu added the satellite-observed ozone levels around a hurricane into a computer forecast model, the model greatly improved the predicted track that the hurricane would take...

The Tallahassee Democrat had an article today on this entitled Researchers link ozone levels storm, strength.

Some pretty pictures showing showing examples of what's being talked about can be found in NASA's feature Ozone levels drop when hurricanes are strengthening.

If the journal article were available online (via FSU's library), I would have given it a look, but it is not. It does appear that the FSU library has the journal on dead tree, however, so I may stroll down to Dirac some time and give the article a read. Here's the citation:

Zou, X.; Wu, Yonghui

On the relationship between Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) ozone and hurricanes

J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 110, No. D6, D06109

10.1029/2004JD005019

The $64 question is: Do we get the data frequently enough to make it an operationally useful product for NHC? From the TOMS webpage, it would appear that the answer is no, not really. However, given the lack of progress made in forecasting storm intensity, I think we would take anything we can get rather happily, regardless of its limitations.

Quiet day for Seminoles in baseball draft

Wed, 08 Jun 2005 16:33:24 GMT

No Florida State players were drafted yesterday. Also, none of our high school recruits were drafted.

In past years the draft has depleted our recruiting class. In 1997, for example, Michael Cuddyer had committed to the Seminoles and waited until the last minute to decide to play baseball instead of going to college. In 2001, Joe Mauer made a similar decision. (He was also a highly rated quarterback. At the time the joke was that he was going to be the next Chris Weinke). It is fairly hard to research other instances of this.

But it is not hard to research our players being drafted (or not). Thanks to The Baseball Cube, we can look back on past years to see the last time the first Seminole picked was drafted so late:

Year	Round	Pick #	Name
2004	1	15	Stephen Drew
2003	4	103	Tony Richie
2002	7	205	Matt Lynch
2001	1	23	John Ford-Griffin
2000	9	270	Marshall McDougal
1999	1	36	Nick Stocks
1998	5	156	Scott Proctor
1997	1	2	J.D. Drew
1996	9	259	Jeremy Morris
1995	1	7	Jonathan Johnson
1994	1	1	Paul Wilson
1993	1	25	John Wasdin
1992	1	12	Kenny Felder
1991	1	17	Eduardo Perez
1990	3	86	Marc Ronan
1989	10	251	Ron Lewis
1988	9	216	Edwin Alicea
1987	2	44	Richie Lewis
1986	1	23	Luis Alicea
1985	7	176	Doug Little
1984	8	198	Jody Reed
1983	4	97	Bruce Tanner
1982	1	26	Jeff Ledbetter
1981	2	44	Mike Fuentes
1980	2	35	Jim Weaver
1979	31	767	Craig Patterson

A few notes to this:

- While they are rare, players picked as late as Craig Patterson can have an impact. Pick 765 in 1979 belonged to the Houston Astros who drafted Glenn Davis, who would go on to be a two-time All-Star.

- In the recent years (at least) that we didn't have a player drafted early, we did have prospects who went on to play for us get drafted. In 2000, Tony Richie was drafted in the 8th round, but went to school instead and was the first Seminole picked in 2003.

- The difference between 1979 and 1980 is simple: Mike Martin became coach in 1980. With the exception of winning a national championship, he has meant as much to Florida State baseball as Bobby Bowden has meant to FSU football.

The Tallahassee Deomcrat has an article on our relative lack of star power:

Unified front helps FSU

Florida State enters the Gainesville Super Regional without the power, and even star power, that it had a year ago. Yet coaches and players insist this FSU team possesses the necessary ingredients to go even further in the NCAA postseason.

Speed, doing the little things right and patience at the plate have countered offensive deficiencies to push FSU over the 50-win plateau - something it didn't reach a year ago. The ace - Bryan Henry - and bullpen are solid. And there is something else - togetherness.

"I've never had a tighter-knit group of guys - never," FSU coach Mike Martin said. "Senior leadership. ... Four seniors and, boy, did they really get across to the other guys what is expected off the field and on the field."...

To understand how remarkable Florida State's sucess is with a lack of star seniors, consider the other fifteen teams that are still in contention for the national championship. Here are some tidbits on their draft:

- Eleven of those teams had at least one player drafted in the first round (Miami and Tennessee both had two).

- Three of the teams that did not have a player drafted in the first had at least one drafted in the second.

- Florida was the last team (besides FSU, of course,) to have a player drafted. Their first player drafted was pick #200 in the sixth round.

- As of this moment (19th round) ever round has had least one player taken from a team in the Super Regionals.

- Also, atm, there have been 61 players taken from the other fifteen schools.

- Of those schools, Baylor leads the way with seven players drafted; Tennessee, Miami, Cal State-Fullerton, and Mississippi have five apiece.

Of course, stars do not necessarily make a championship team. Arizona had eight players drafted and they were knocked off by Cal-State Fullerton in the regionals. Auburn had seven players drafted and Florida State eliminated them in the regionals as well.

I'll update this post when a Seminole does finally get drafted.

LATER:
26th Round, Pick #793 by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - Kevin Lynch - Right Handed Pitcher Florida State University.

So, 26 picks later than the previous 'latest first FSU' pick. It appears that this is the latest ever for such a pick. In the years before 1979 there were players taken in the 10th, 1st, 4th, and 8th rounds. In 1974 there were no FSU players taken and there were only 687 picks that year.

By my count there are only eleven teams left from the field of 64 that started the College World Series playoffs that do not have a player drafted (Even Army/United States Military Academy had a player (Schuyler Williamson) taken before Lynch (#780).

FSU baseball cracks top ten in two of three polls

Tue, 01 Mar 2005 02:46:23 GMT

After sweeping Appalachian State in a rain shortened series, Florida State baseball has entered the top ten in two of the three polls.

FSU receives its hightest ranking, eighth, in the Collegiate Baseball poll. In the Sports Weekly / ESPN poll, we are ninth. Our lowest ranking, eightheenth, comes from the Baseball America poll.
Future opponents ranked ahead of us in that poll include UNC (6th), Florida (8th), Miami (9th), and Georgia Tech (17th).

Florida State has won every series it has played in so far. This weekend it starts set of ten games (against three opponents) in Hawaii. The Sminoles' first ACC series starts March 18 against Virginia Tech.

The media whore strikes again

Thu, 24 Feb 2005 03:41:49 GMT

Forgot to mention yesterday that the media whore was part of a front page story in the Tallahassee Democrat about blogging.

Long Day

Mon, 18 Oct 2004 13:30:03 GMT

So, in the past eighteen hours I have:

1. Rallied for Bush-Cheney at John Edward's rally at Florida A&M University.

2. Camped out all night at the Leon County Courthouse, so that I could

3. Be one of the first people to vote early in the election.

Now it's naptime. Details to follow once I am out of class this afternoon.

Going to the football game

Sat, 25 Sep 2004 16:44:14 GMT

If my beloved little sister did not have me sitting with her at the football game, I would be staying here watching Jeanne. Alas, if I don't go then she would be by herself (she was going to go with her roomate who is in Orange Park at the moment). So I am off to Doak Campbell Stadium to watch the FSU- Clemson game.

The National Hurricane Center will have intermediate advisories at 1 and 3 PM with the next complete advisory at 5 PM. I should be home in time for the 8 PM advisory unless our game goes to overtime.

Check out Florida Cracker, On the Third Hand, and the rest of my fellow bloggers in Florida while I'm gone. Alan Sullivan ,whose blog always has good commentary during storms, has changed his plans so that he can resume blogging Jeanne by around 4 this afternoon.

For everyone watching the storm's progress on satellite loops, remember to not get too focused on the last bit of the loop if the storm wobbles south or north. Keep an eye on what the trend of the past three to six hours is instead. That gives you a better idea of what the storm's movement is.

(painfully removes himself from his laptop)

They were for having classes before they were against it

Thu, 16 Sep 2004 03:42:49 GMT

In my 5 PM post, I mentioned that classes were on for tomorrow. Well, at 6:35 PM the decision was reversed:

Late today Leon County reversed plans and announced it was closing for business on Thursday, and the City of Tallahassee and Florida State University have followed suit.

Not much of a day off as I'll be doing homework for the better part of the day, but it is a useful break from classes. Plus, I can stay up tonight and watch Ivan come ashore...

Just when you thought Chris Rix couldn't get more unpopular...

Sat, 11 Sep 2004 04:20:45 GMT

...the starting quarterback for FSU throws two interceptions and fumbles in overtime.

Miami wins 16-10. Rix falls to 0-5 against the Hurricanes.

Bowden Kin Are Killed in Hurricane

Mon, 06 Sep 2004 19:08:34 GMT

QUINCY, Fla. - A grandson and a former son-in-law of Florida State football coach Bobby Bowden were killed when their car was hit a by a utility truck that was helping to restore power outages caused by Hurricane Frances...

Hurricane Frances Update 030800L

Fri, 03 Sep 2004 12:21:30 GMT

At 8:00 AM EDT, category three hurricane Frances over Eleuthra Island in the Bahamas (260miles east-southeast of Florida). Maximum sustained winds are being held ad 125 mph and minimum central pressure has risen to 957 millibars.

Huricane Frances Adivsory Number 38A

Frances is clearly weakining. Upper level winds continue to be unfavorable to Frances. The changes in her structure due to them will make it difficult for her to reintensify. The intensity forecast (1 knot = 1.15 statute miles) defies some of their models and has Frances reintensifying before landfall.

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 38

I've Atmospheric Dynamics at 11, so the next update from me will be at 12. The next forecast discussion should be an interesting read.

While we wait, here is an article about the FSU superensemble that I've mentioned a few times in previous posts.

Hurricane center takes cues from FSU (Tallahassee Democrat)

First day of classes

Mon, 23 Aug 2004 20:48:17 GMT

Senior year started for me today. I'm in the heart of my major with Atmospheric Dynamics I, Atmospheric Physics I, and Synoptic Meteorology I (those are the classes referred to as 'The Big Three'). Tomorrow I have my other class, Partial Differential Equations.

Author of Godfather sequel to give commencement address

Sat, 07 Aug 2004 13:14:59 GMT

Vice President Cheney was the commencement speaker at one of the spring graduation ceremonies at Florida State University. At the summer ceremony, FSU English professor Mark Winegardner will be speaking. He is putting the finishing touches a sequel to Mario Puzo's novel The Godfather. The book is entitled The Godfather Returns and is slated for a fall release by Random House.

Novelist delivers address (Tallahassee Democrat)