Political Science - administered by Chris McIntyre, PhD: McIntyre

Thu, 10 Jun 2004 16:56:40 GMT

Thu, 10 Jun 2004 16:06:50 GMT

Wed, 09 Jun 2004 15:00:09 GMT

Someone needs to read someone's dissertation. Will Baude: Voting instrumentally (in presidential elections, at least) is quite irrational, except to the extent that voters enjoy doing it. The probability of any single voter changing the outcome of a presidential election is 0. Tell that to a voter in Florida in 2000 (his probability was about .002, which isn’t great, but beats the heck out of the lottery). Because of the electoral college, the probability of any single voter changing the outcome of a presidential election varies from state to state, and is a function of the competitiveness of the election in that state. But you don’t have to believe me; instead, believe, er, Chris Lawrence: For [supporters of third party candidates], the strategic/sincere choice rests on whether their vote is likely to be pivotal. Although Downs (1957) argues that casting a non-strategic vote is irrational, that is only the case if the vote has a non-negligible chance of affecting the outcome of the election. Sincere voting for minor candidates is irrational in the sense that elections are not normally thought of as a forum for expressing general preferences, but rather as a “selection process”; however, if political actors respond to election results as if they are referenda on particular policies espoused by candidates, sincere voting for minor candidates may be rational in certain circumstances. If a citizen’s vote is almost certainly not pivotal, it may be rational for voters to show their public policy preferences by supporting a minor candidate. ... Thus, voters may be considered rational if they express a preference, rather than merely taking part in a “selection process,” in states where their vote is highly unlikely to make a difference in the outcome. For example, according to CNN (2000), only 20 of the 51 elections for electors in 2000 were in so-called “battleground” states that were expected to be close. Thus, a voter in one of the other 30 states or the District of Columbia could presumably vote for a third-party candidate and thus have virtually no expectation of affecting the presidential contest, as their vote would be highly unlikely to affect the disposition of their state’s electors. (103–04) Unfortunately, the astounding finding that the variation in “pivotalness” of an individual’s vote varied in 2000 by a factor of nearly 1000 between the most competitive and least competitive state didn’t make it into then-Mr. Lawrence’s dissertation, although it has made it into at least one presentation of the findings of this chapter. [Signifying Nothing]

Wed, 09 Jun 2004 13:41:48 GMT

hip hop and politics

Mon, 31 May 2004 15:07:47 GMT

teen volunteering

Mon, 31 May 2004 15:03:30 GMT

The Monday of the second week of the Canadian national election and the following are the only 2 mentions of Canada on the electronic front page of the NY Times.

Canada the Cup and the Flames f

Montreal magazine returns

Sun, 30 May 2004 16:57:43 GMT

immigrants in England

Sun, 30 May 2004 16:54:42 GMT

who votes, who cares Boston Globe

Sat, 29 May 2004 16:07:29 GMT

,a href="http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1085782211223&call_pageid=968332188492&col=968793972154">week 1 cdn election Paul Martin continues his unimpressive performance. Jack Layton is doing the job quite well. Stephen Harper is laying low, staying away from uncontrolled settings.

Sat, 29 May 2004 02:04:53 GMT

day 6 toronto star poll

Thu, 27 May 2004 13:50:09 GMT

Quebec immigration

Thu, 27 May 2004 13:32:27 GMT

international immigration attitudes

Fri, 14 May 2004 15:44:55 GMT

Kerry's Smart Use of Political Online Advertising. The Kerry campaign, which reportedly has been leading the Bush campaign in Amazon.com's online donation system, has launched a smart run of advertising on the home page of NYTimes.com. It's good timing, considering what a rough week the Bush administration has had. The Kerry ad campaign is a page-dominating 336 x 280 pixels, delivered in a mix of creative approaches (both GIF and Flash versions). The significant thing is that it makes a direct appeal for small contributions, turning what could be just another message into an opportunity for engagement and action. Participation cements affinity, and that's the (...)

Entry continued... By steve@yelvington.com (Steve Yelvington). [Poynter E-Media Tidbits]

Fri, 14 May 2004 15:32:14 GMT

What Bloggers Think Is Trendy. Here's a cool search tool that might be handy for editors wanting to keep track of what's trendy and hot. Intelliseek has launched a free website called Blogpulse.com which tracks and measures "buzz" about key issues, trends, personalities, and links in more than 1 million blogs. Click on "key people," "key phrases," or "top links" to find out what's being written about most in the blog world. It's a tool that can be especially useful in making sure that news editors don't miss stories that may be hot among bloggers but not yet mainstream media.

I just checked "key phrases" (...)

Entry continued... By steve@poynter.org (Steve Outing). [Poynter E-Media Tidbits]

Wed, 12 May 2004 13:39:22 GMT

Jon Stewart on US torturers. Lisa Rein has posted two amazing clips from the Daily Show on the Iraq torture scandal. 4.8MB QuickTime Link to Rob Courddry On The US Torture Of Iraqi Prisoners, 9.8MB QuickTime Link to Jon Stewart on Giant Messopotamia [Boing Boing]

Wed, 12 May 2004 13:31:53 GMT

U.S. Uninsured Health Care Cost Put at $125 Billion. NEW YORK (Reuters) - The cost of providing health care for U.S. citizens who have no insurance will total $125 billion this year, with taxpayers and private entities footing most of the bill, a report issued on Monday said. [Reuters: Top News]

Wed, 05 May 2004 13:08:41 GMT

Ontario-Ottawa Love-in: Harper, West Doomed. What is this, Survivor Central Canada? No province is an island, but Ontario is proving itself to be the power broker of central Canada, once again. Martin/McGuinty vs. Rest Of Canada is the first in what we see as a... [PolSpy]

Wed, 05 May 2004 13:07:42 GMT

The $1 Billion Campaign. "This year's presidential race -- fueled by more than a million donors, including many who have never given before -- is well on its way to becoming the country's first $1-billion political campaign, experts say," the Los Angeles Times reports. "The money is coming in small donations and large ones,... [Taegan Goddard's Political Wire]

Wed, 05 May 2004 13:04:03 GMT

E-Voting Oversight Overwhelms U.S. Agency (AP). AP - As alarm mounts over the integrity of the ATM-like voting machines 50 million Americans will use in the November election, a new federal agency has begun scrutinizing how to safeguard electronic polling from fraud, hackers and faulty software. [Yahoo! News - Technology]

Sat, 01 May 2004 02:29:44 GMT

CBC News Online Court rules against Ontario Film Review Board TORONTO - An Ontario court has ruled that the province's Film Review Board can no longer ban films. The decision came Friday in a case against a gay bookstore in Toronto, Glad Day Bookshop, which was charged after agents from the Ontario Film Review Board bought a copy of an unapproved gay pornographic video. The Ontario Superior Court said that forcing distributors to seek approval for a film is a violation of freedom of expression under the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. The court suspended the board's authority to ban movies for a year, although it will still classify films with ratings such as PG and Restricted.

Fri, 30 Apr 2004 15:00:04 GMT

Do you know a young person who might be interested in attending the Youth Forum of the Council of the Federation's meeting this summer? It's a marvelous opportunity to meet other young people who are interested in public affairs and federalism and to rub shoulders with participants at an important national event which will take place at Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario, in late July. On behalf of the Council of the Federation, IPAC is coordinating an essay-writing contest for students aged 19-22. Two winners from each province and territory will be selected to represent Canada's youth. For more details on the contest (which ends May 15th) and to access the on-line application form, please go to http://www.ipac.ca/awards/cf_youth_forum_2004.html.

Fri, 30 Apr 2004 13:50:23 GMT

'Dude! This Thing Is Awesome!'. The latest device for downloading music comes from an outfit called eMusic. Users can record their favorite bands, live, then rush home from the concert, download the file and share it with their friends. Best of all, it appears to be legal. [Wired News]

Thu, 29 Apr 2004 13:20:33 GMT

RIAA Sues 477 More People. The music group continues its lawsuit blitz, targeting dozens more college students and hundreds of other computer users. The industry has now filed 2,454 suits since last summer, although none of the cases has yet gone to trial. [Wired News]

Wed, 28 Apr 2004 23:30:45 GMT

Data Analysis in Law Enforcement

Mon, 26 Apr 2004 12:58:56 GMT

Canadian Greens building election platform via open wiki. Forget Presidential blogs. The Green Party of Canada is thinking way outside the blog: it's assembling its party platform for the next fedeal election via a public wiki. Link (Thanks, Alex!) [Boing Boing]