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Sunday, April 04, 2004 |
Klopfenstein: I believe the home network may become a next great thing for reasons including:
1) the number of people with wireless home networks already who will approach the technology fearlessly
2) the current lack of portability of recorded shows from one DVR/TV set to another (the availability of this technology is already changing)
3) the inexorable march of increasing hard drive space and improving compression technologies
4) the paradigm shift from program schedules to people schedules
However, if you read my earlier posting, you will see why I would definitely reserve judgment on any Microsoft product for the foreseeable future. Why isn't it Microsoft that introduced and succeeded with "TiVo" first? Why is it that Microsoft took what could have been "the next big thing" in WebTV and killed it off? This is not Microsoft bashing, it's the reality of a computer software company trying to force feed its products into areas into which it has not been previously successful.
This blog and its content are © Copyright by Dr. Bruce Klopfenstein unless it states otherwise as in the citation of public domain documents.
MLA Citation Example:
Klopfenstein, Bruce C. "I believe the home network will..." [Weblog comment.] 4 April 2004. Meet the Diva: World's First Broadband-Ready Personal Video Recorder (PVR). Rita Tennyson. Dr. Bruce Klopfenstein's Interactive Television Blog. . Date blog entry was posted. (http://radio.weblogs.com/0135399/.) Date you accessed the comment.
01/08/2004 -- INTERNATIONAL CES -- Malata North America is debuting a revolutionary new consumer hardware platform that is destined to redefine the digital personal video recorder (PVR), according to Malata North America chief executive officer Henry Jung. Two models of the DIVA personal video recorder will be on display in the Microsoft booth, where the company will also hold a demonstration and press conference today at 12:15 p.m. in the Microsoft Theater, Booth #8323, Central Hall, Las Vegas Convention Center.
The DIVA is the first DVD/CD recorder to use Windows Media Video 9 to record over the air television programming directly on CD or DVD media. Taking advantage of WMV9's ability to deliver nearly three times the video storage of MPEG2 (and twice as much as MPEG4), the DIVA offers consumers the ability to record more than 11 hours of television programming onto a DVD (or nearly two hours on a CD).
DIVA Uniquely Combines Best of PVR and Digital Media Playback Capabilities
DIVA is an acronym: D -- DVD Player, I -- Internet Broadband Streaming Device, V -- Video Recorder (PVR), and A -- Audio/Video Playback of Digital Content on a Standard TV, including home movies made on a digital video camera and edited using Windows Media Video.
For more see:
http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release_html_b1?release_id=61569
1:32:23 PM 
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Saturday, April 03, 2004 |
This will be a major surprise if it succeeds. It would be unprecedented.
How many DVDs are played on video game machines today?
Does anyone know? From: http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104
STORY =/www/story/03-25-2004/0002135071&EDATE= ONTARIO, Calif., March 25 /PRNewswire/ --
Apex Digital Inc., America's number-one seller of DVD players, has finalized
the specifications of its revolutionary ApeXtreme (pronounced Apex Extreme)
DVD player/Personal Video Recorder/PC game console, it was announced today
by company President Steve Brothers. At the heart of the system will be AMD's
AthlonXP2000+processor chip; video will be supplied by NVIDIA's nForce2 IGP
graphics processor; all of which will be integrated on a motherboard produced
by Biostar. The ApeXtreme will also utilize NVIDIA's GeForce4 MX graphics card
to supply smooth, crisp graphics. Additionally, the company has added Personal
Video Recording (PVR) functionality to the device since it was originally
unveiled at this year's Consumer Electronics Show (CES). "By creating the first
game console that will play PC games and combining it with a full-featured DVD
player and a Personal Video Recorder, Apex is defining a new product category,"
said Brothers. "And just like with all of our other products, we want to provide
the best technology at a price that makes sense to the average consumer. Working
with AMD, NVIDIA and Biostar allows us to do that."
11:48:01 PM
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Public domain article: another angle on the CTAM study.
Must-Schedule TV: Study Finds Appointment Viewing Still Prevalent By
Staff Writer
Thursday, April 01, 2004
Appointment television is alive and well in most TV viewers' schedules, as the
wider appearance of digital video recorders hasn't yet changed habits.
That revelation is among the findings of a new study, "Tracking the Evolving Use of Television and Its Content," released Tuesday afternoon by Cable &Telecommunications Association for Marketing (CTAM) and Lieberman Research Worldwide. More than 64 percent say they knew what they were going to watch when they sat down in front of the television. Forty-eight percent of viewing is made up of television shows that viewers regularly watch, and 53 percent of viewers say they like to stick with their favorite program and not switch to another while their favorite is on.
"Though we are starting to see changes in the way people are deciding what to watch on television, it's surprising how much 'appointment viewing' to specific programs continues to dominate TV consumption," Michael Pardee, vice president of research at Scripps Networks and chairman of the CTAM Research Subcommittee that commissioned the research, said.
More than 55 percent of those surveyed said that they turned to their favorite channels to see what was on the evening before being asked. The favorite channels remain top of mind, but half of all viewers said they had watched a new channel within the past year.
The study is also meant to track viewing behavior in the future to determine the impact of high-definition television, DVRs, and other technology on the television viewing experience. Forty-five percent of the people surveyed said they're familiar with high-definition TV; two in 10 say they want to buy an HD-capable set.
The survey was conducted October through December among focused groups in the Philadelphia area and through telephone interviews with 1,201 adults. |
11:29:27 PM
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Highly Disciplined Research Shows True Nature of New Media Landscape
ALEXANDRIA, Va., March 31 /PRNewswire/ -- Amidst 50th birthday celebrations of the color TV and swirling rumors of the death of traditional television, CTAM (Cable & Telecommunications Association for Marketing) has taken responsibility for clearing up the muddied and sometimes contradictory picture of today's media consumer. The organization and its research partner, Lieberman Research Worldwide, have unveiled the first in a series of carefully-controlled looks at how consumers watch TV and use new media
-- setting the stage for tracking and predicting changes in behavior over the next several years. The study, Tracking the Evolving Use of Television and Its Content, is an unbiased "screen grab," designed to answer some of the most critical questions facing the cable business, as it wrestles with providing both traditional and new media services and content.
MORE at http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&;STORY=/www/story/03-31-2004/0002138693&EDATE=
11:03:10 PM
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DVR Service Allows Customers to Record and Pause Live Television and Is
Another Example of Comcast Giving Customers More Choice and Control
WASHINGTON, March 18 /PRNewswire/ -- Comcast today announced the launch of
its Digital Video Recorder (DVR) service throughout the Washington
Metro/Virginia Region. DVR service will allow Comcast Digital Cable customers
to easily pause and rewind live television at the touch of a button and record
their favorite television programs without tapes, timers or a VCR. In
addition, Comcast's DVR service is equipped with a new feature that gives
customers with high-definition-capable TV sets the ability to record high-
definition programming. The Washington Metro/Virginia Region is the first
Comcast market in the country to have access to this innovative new
technology.
DVR is available to Comcast Digital Cable customers in Montgomery and
Prince George's Counties in Maryland, Alexandria, Arlington, Prince William
County and Reston in Northern Virginia, as well as the District of Columbia.
Some of the innovative features and functionality of Comcast's DVR Service
include:
-- Easily record television shows so customers can watch them when it is
convenient.
-- Pause, fast-forward and rewind recorded television programs so that
customers never miss an important moment in the show.
-- Record high-definition programming so that customers can watch shows
on their schedule and still record the same crystal-clear picture
quality.
-- Record one episode or the entire season of a favorite television show.
-- Easy-to-navigate DVR menu that explains step-by-step how to utilize
all of the exciting features.
-- DVR customers can save up to 30 to 50 hours of standard programming on
their digital set-top box or up to seven hours of HD programming.
-- "Instant Replay" button that sports fans or television viewers can use
if they miss a big play or an important punch line of a sitcom.
10:50:55 PM
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Klopfenstein: If you are keeping up with this blog, then you know omniscient observers like me (who took the time to see what TiVo was really all about ;-) were not persuaded by naysayes like this observer from just over one year ago. Oddly enough, Mike Ramsey of TiVo was already on what I suspect is a reasonable comparison: DVD player growth. The interesting question to me is how DVD-R might or might not confuse potential DVR adopters, although TiVo smartly has already announced a combo TiVo/DVD-R. Embracing new technology like the DVD-R is a far better strategy than trying to dismiss it (as the advertising industry wanted to in the 2000-2002 period). From the public domain http://www.baltimoresun.com/technology/chi-030317dvr,1,952050,print.story:
Mass rollout of DVR stuck on pause
By Michael A. Hiltzik
Los Angeles Times
March 17, 2003
Three or four years ago, in the heyday of gotta-have-it technology, scarcely a week would pass without a clutch of Silicon Valley executives trooping through our offices to demonstrate one or another hot new gizmo. In all that time, only once did I ever see something I thought would take the world by storm.
That device was a DVR, or digital video recorder.
It worked by diverting a TV signal onto a hard disk, like the one inside the average personal computer, before passing the image to the TV screen. This process enabled viewers to exploit the disk's storage capacity to view live TV with VCR-style pause, rewind and replay functions -- and, given sufficient delay, to skip obliviously through commercials, all without videotape. The electronic services designed to work with the boxes also allowed viewers to schedule off-hour recording of shows with unprecedented ease.
It was the greatest thing I'd ever seen demonstrated in an office cubicle, a device you had to check out only once to understand its potential to revolutionize the television experience.
At the time, the technology was being developed by two competing companies, TiVo Inc. and ReplayTV Inc., that harbored great hopes for it. (The latter had given us the demonstration.) As a ReplayTV executive told me then: "Five years from now, all TV will be watched from a hard disk."
This forecast sounded plausible at the time not only because we were in an era when the spread of great technology seemed to operate under its own organic logic, but also because the device was so compelling. Television network executives, contemplating a world where viewers could zip through commercials with the flick of a remote, talked about DVRs the way music executives would soon be talking about Napster: with utter fear.
Yet here we are in 2003, the executive's prediction has only a year or so to run, and it must be said that the revolution is way behind schedule. Far from being an indispensable household appliance, the DVR remains a device of cliquish partiality.
The best estimates are that over the last four years, only about 1.7 million DVRs have been sold to U.S. consumers (out of 105 million TV-viewing households). Digital video recorders are not exactly a flop, but the number of users has probably failed to keep pace with the number of newspaper stories that quoted TV executives fretting that mass commercial-skipping might destroy the business model of broadcast television.
The purest picture of DVR growth comes from the financial records of TiVo, the Alviso, Calif.-based company that markets the leading player and earns most of its revenue by charging a subscription fee for its programming guide and other services delivered through its box. (ReplayTV, now owned by Santa Clara, Calif.-based audio-video gadget maker Sonicblue Inc., has about one-sixth of TiVo's installed base.)
This month TiVo released its 2002 results, showing that it had quintupled revenue, cut its chronic losses roughly in half and registered a 64% gain in subscribers, to 624,000. TiVo presented these results cheerily, but fourth-quarter subscriber growth came in almost 10% shy of what investors expected, and TiVo's stock price fell sharply.
The figures also disclosed a sharp slowdown in the rate of subscriber growth; the gain in 2002 was less than half the 154% surge the year before, although the absolute numbers were about the same. Among other things, the performance renewed questions about how long TiVo may last as a going concern, even if DVRs eventually become as common as, well, television sets.
The sluggish diffusion of TiVo machines and other DVRs makes for a worthwhile study in what it takes to get even a great technology into consumers' hands. Technology gurus tell us that to spread rapidly, a new technology has to do something new at an acceptable price, or take on a tedious task more efficiently or cheaply than existing solutions.
Sometimes the process looks easy: Consider the DVD player, which hit the 1.7-million mark in sales (i.e., where DVRs are today) within 24 months of its introduction in 1997. There are now an estimated 45.5 million DVD players in U.S. homes, and they continue to sell at an average rate of 1.7 million units per month.
It's only fair to note that Michael Ramsay, the affable Scot who is TiVo's chairman and chief executive, contends that this is a false comparison. The notion that the rollout of DVRs has been sluggish, he says, is a bum rap. "It's wrong to think this is going slowly," he says. "It's actually going really well. But we're conditioned to think that if a product category is hot, it will take off like a bat out of hell."
The pace of DVR sales is deceptive, according to Ramsay, because they are still relatively expensive contraptions; even the cheapest TiVo can cost nearly $600, including subscription fees. (These run $12.95 a month or $299 for the life of the unit.) On a kind of dollar-per-sales-rate basis, he contends, the devices are matching the growth rate of DVDs.
"If you line up the historical data on DVRs," Ramsay tells me, "you'll find they're tracking DVDs almost exactly at the same price points." In other words, DVDs sold at the same rate as TiVos back when they, too, cost $600. By that measure, he argues, TiVo is a success.
"Never in my wildest dreams did I think we'd be at this stage with this technology" by now, Ramsay says.
But such a buoyant assessment brings up some issues that go to the heart of TiVo's quandary. To start with, DVD players are easy to comprehend ("They play movies that look really good!"), easier to operate than VCRs and, most important, cheap. The DVD player never spent much time at the $600 price point; I've seen perfectly serviceable units recently advertised for $49.99.
TiVo has none of these qualities. Although it can do things that everyone appreciates in the abstract -- such as pausing, rewinding and one-touch recording of live TV -- the power of these functions is hard to communicate by word alone. As any DVR owner knows (and I am writing from personal experience), you can talk about its virtues with the zeal of a biblical prophet, but your listeners will gaze at the ceiling and suck at their teeth in pure apathy. It isn't until you set somebody in front of one for an hour or two that they're hooked.
Then there's the price. Hard as it is to convince a friend that it's a pleasure to pause and rewind live TV, try adding: "And it costs only 600 bucks!"
That price is an obstacle comes as no surprise to Ramsay. Back in 1999, when TiVo first started shipping units, he told me that he thought the DVR would not become a mass-market technology until it was priced as a "$100 add-on," meaning an enhancement to satellite or cable set-top boxes. The closest it has come is the DirecTV satellite service, which offers TiVo as an enhancement to its receiver box for an additional $199.
"It's still a premium-priced buy," Ramsay acknowledges.
In the end, however, the main obstacle to the DVR's popularity may be the structure of the U.S. television industry, which is dominated by cable operators protecting regional monopolies. TiVo has tried to interest cable companies in adding its technology to their set-top boxes, but with notably little success.
Cable companies are typically cash-strapped and investment-averse. As competitors they strictly play defense; laying out millions to launch a technology for which customers are not clamoring -- and sharing the revenue with another company -- is simply not in their culture.
The converse accounts for why the most determined purveyors of DVR technology are satellite-TV companies, which are trying to use enhanced viewer functions to pry customers loose from cable. Roughly half of TiVo's subscribers buy its service via Hughes Electronics Corp.'s DirecTV, while EchoStar Communications Corp.'s Dish Network has installed an estimated 700,000 of its own DVRs in customers' homes.
DVR partisans still believe that infiltrating the cable universe is the key to finally reaching the technology's potential. TiVo's Ramsay says he has lately detected a little more interest among cable operators in TiVo's potential to deliver programs, promotions and other content directly to user boxes for their off-schedule viewing (complete with pause, rewind and fast-forward).
Others who have long predicted that DVRs would flood the marketplace are convinced that we are finally on the edge of the water. Think about this: It's possible, just possible, that five years from now, all TV will be watched from a hard disk.
6:11:45 PM
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Klopfenstein: Always nice to include the thoughts of others. This was published in the public domain at http://www.skyreport.com/viewskyreport.cfm?ReleaseID=1264#Story5 and dated 3 December 2003:
"OUTSIDE THE BOX: TiVo and the Future of TV"
"By Bruce Leichtman
"Last month TiVo celebrated surpassing 1 million subscribers, and achieving its most successful quarter on record. These announcements, along with the long-awaited emergence of the digital video recorder (DVR) category as a whole, appear to be indications that the company is finally prepared to fulfill its goal of revolutionizing TV. However, these achievements may ultimately prove to be but Pyrrhic victories.
"By the end of 2003, there will be approximately 3 million DVR subscribers in the U.S. While this is not close to the widely unrealistic expectations that many held for the category, it does represent more than twice the number at the start of the year. This is the first clear indication that the category is beginning to blossom.
"Yet, well over three-quarters of DVR subscribers do not "own" a DVR.
"Since its inception, TiVo has done an exemplary job of building a brand – even to the point of making "Tivoed" an adjective heard in some circles – and establishing the groundwork for a new category. Yet, the challenges that the company has encountered in growing a business stem from the fact that consumers (who are interested in the concept DVRs) perceive it to be a service rather than a product.
"The bulk of growth in the DVR category is not as a stand-alone product, but rather from being bundled as a feature in DBS and cable set-top boxes. In nearly five years, TiVo has 526,000 stand-alone box subscribers. This is less than the number of DVR-enabled cable set-top boxes that Scientific-Atlanta shipped in the past five quarters. In addition, TiVo was not the first DVR provider to announce one million subscribers, since DBS provider EchoStar made that announcement in September. (Neither EchoStar nor Scientific-Atlanta use TiVo in their DVRs.)
"In addition, of the 209,000 net new additional subscribers to TiVo in the third quarter of 2003, over 70 percent came from DirecTV. In total, 48 percent of TiVo's subscribers now come from DirecTV, a figure that has rapidly increased from 37 percent at the beginning of 2003. TiVo is clearly becoming increasingly reliant on DirecTV for its growth. With Rupert Murdoch soon taking charge of DirecTV, this unbalanced relationship may become more precarious.
"TiVo's Web site boldly proclaims, "We've pioneered an exciting new category that will forever change the way the world watches TV." For nearly five years the company has journeyed through the desert leading the minions in this ambitious undertaking, and the promised land is now almost in sight. As this brave new world continues to take shape, how this will change the TV watching world, and what role TiVo will ultimately play, remains unclear.
"Bruce Leichtman is president and principal analyst for Leichtman Research Group, which can be found on the Web at: http://www.leichtmanresearch.com. His e-mail is: Bruce@LeichtmanResearch.com."
2:24:39 PM
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Klopfenstein: What a difference a year makes! After the ReplayTV debacle (including the death of its savior, SonicBlue) and doomsayers for TiVo, spring 2004 is going down as the "whoops! We changed our minds!" Let the record show that my students learned in no uncertain terms that TiVo represents the most revolutionary new television technology since satellite delivered programming hit the cable industry (and the impact od DVRs will come much more quickly than the slow and deliberate diffusion of satellite cable television channels). IDC (who is underestimating the diffusion rate for DVRs, see my archive) public has released more
According to canada.com:
In the United States, DVR adoption has become a function of the heated competition between cable and satellite television providers. Initially, satellite providers emphasized DVR offerings to combat cable televisions' investment in video-on-demand (VOD), and now cable is being forced to respond. "This strategy has done more in one year to advance the understanding and acceptance of DVRs than standalone options, such as TiVo, had done in the previous five years," Ireland added.
The DVR market in Western Europe, although not quite as aggressive, closely resembles that of the United States, relying heavily on pay TV providers to advance DVR penetration. In Japan, however, things are quite different as DVR/DVD-recorders are igniting the market. These combo devices will ship 11.3 million units worldwide in 2008, with nearly 80% of the shipments happening outside the United States. Standalone DVR shipments will decline toward the second half of the forecast period as these devices increasingly add DVD recording functionality. In fact, the DVR/DVD-recorder segment will continue to grow and account for nearly 40% of the entire worldwide DVR market in 2008. Key Findings
-- At the end of 2003, there were 3.2 million U.S. DVR households
-- Despite its strong brand, which is virtually synonymous with
the DVR product category, TiVo owns only 39% of the U.S.
market
-- Unlike in the U.S., DVR/DVD-recorder devices have ignited the
Japanese market
-- In the U.S. and Japan, DVR will increasingly incorporate
high-definition (HD) capabilities
-- Storage capacity will become more important as more DVR users
wish to build larger and larger libraries of content [I do not endorse this product, however, to judge for yourself, call IDC Sales at 508-988-7988 or email sales@idc.com].
1:17:04 PM
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Much of my research has turned on understanding why some new media succeed and others fail. An example is the RCA Selectavision videodisc player of the 1980s. Think a major company with big bucks matters? You know it doesn't. RCA wrote off half a billion dollars when it discontinued the Selectavision videodisc player in 1984. What went wrong? Well, RCA's enormous marketing and advertising expenses couldn't convince people to get it. RCA's laudable but largely irrelevant reason for marketing the RVA Selectavision videodisc player was (cue the Star Spangled Banner) to bring back a consumer electronics product back to the USA after we gave away videotape technology to Japan (well, Ampex did). See Klopfenstein, 1985). (By the way, it didn't help that RCA had a tiny catalog of movies and old NBC shows from which to choose.)
Anyone remember the IBM PC Jr.? Not only did IBM have not experience marketing a product to a home user, but they deliberately cripled the machine so it could not compete with its business PCs. Anyone remenber how Microsoft bought an exciting new company called WebTV and pounded it into its grave? The lesson is that Microsoft does <i>not</i> have history on its side. In addition, it's not afraid to walk away from products like WebTV. So, Microsoft might have been better off following the original antitrust agreement that the Bush administration abandoned. Perhaps a separate Microsoft company would have a better chance at home entertainment.
Oh, by the way, we "all" use Microsoft products, but I haven't seen any surveys that show Microsoft users like it. If using Microsoft products is about as welcome but unavoidable as death and taxes, don't expect the Microsoft name to matter much to consumers choosing home networking video products.
From: http://www.hoovers.com/free/news/detail.xhtml?ArticleID=NR200404023300.2_56f50069336d847f
Can you characterize the importance of the licensing deal with Major League Baseball and how that plays into your long-term strategy with the newly launched MSN Video?
It's a great way to aggregate a lot of additional consumer interests and time on the MSN network, which will increase our traffic, reaching and engaging more people.
We also sell online advertising and will have the rights in this deal to sell all online advertising throughout all the MLB video broadcasts. Broadband video advertising is one of the things that will kick off the next wave of brand advertising. So we now have a very unique property to go talk to Fortune 500 accounts about doing brand advertising in a way you cannot do anywhere else.
12:44:57 PM
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Friday, April 02, 2004 |
Klopfenstein: I had to have a TiVo before making any judgments about it. Once I used one, its implications for the television viewing experience were obvious. I can say without equivocation that it is nearly impossible to communicate the benefits of a DVR to someone who has not used one. It's one of the reasons they have been "slow" to take off. It appears from other reports cited in this blog that we are now past critical mass and DVRs are set to take their place beside (or in conjunction with) the home DVD player. But may people, like Scott Shamp at the New Media Institute at UGA, were like Eric Hellweg.
Eric Hellweg of CNN/Money had the guts to admit what many other prognosticators had forecast for the year 2003: " What did I get wrong? I said that both TiVo and Sonicblue would go bye-bye, unable to withstand the continued encroachment by cable companies offering personal video recorder functionality in their digital cable boxes."
9:22:49 PM
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Klopfenstein: Is TiVo making a mistake by not allowing consumers to easily and rapidly fast forward through commercials? TiVo purposely does not allow users to fast forward through commercial breaks (i.e., the fast forwarding is slow enough to allow advertisers' messages to register with TiVo users).
New research from Knowledge Networks/SRI shows that early adopters of home media technologies are willing to pay a significant price -- in dollars and convenience -- for the capability to bypass commercials in television programming; but many may not be willing to offer up information on their viewing habits as part of the bargain.
The findings come from two recently released reports -- All Things Digital and How People Use(R) Interactive TV -- published as part of The Home Technology Monitor(TM), a service tracking consumers' ownership and use of media technologies. The data show that awareness of digital video recorders (such as TiVo(R)) -- which enable ad skipping at the push of a button -- has risen from 56% in 2002 to 72% among early adopters.
Though 63% of these high-tech consumers say that watching commercials is a fair price to pay for TV programming, an even higher proportion (72%) do not think that DVR ad-skipping capabilities should be restricted or eliminated. This sentiment was stronger among younger respondents (86% of those ages 18 to 34) than older ones (66% of those 50 or older).
Early adopters also said -- by a three to one margin (74% versus 22%) -- that the ability to skip commercials is more important to them than being able to watch programs "on demand" (at the time most convenient to them).
About 5% of early adopters have a DVR, and 14% of non-owners say they would be "very interested" in paying $10 extra per month for a set-top box with a DVR built in.
Newer DVRs and digital set-top boxes have the capacity to capture users' viewing, pause, and replay data -- information that can be collected by the service provider. Knowledge Networks research shows that 57% of those with advanced TV services agree with the statement, "No one should be able to find out any information about what I watch." Among these privacy-minded consumers, only 23% said they would be more likely to share their viewing information if they were offered incentives (such as discounts on their TV service).
9:10:20 PM
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DVRs are the hottest topic within what I define as interactive television (with viewers taking control of the viewing experience). Rupert Murdoch owns DirecTV and the TV Guide EPG. This just futher adds to the question in my mind as to whether (or when) DirecTV will go with its own DVR and program Guide.
From http://money.cnn.com/services/tickerheadlines/prn/cgw016a.P1.03162004193950.03565.htm
"TiVo Inc. has signed a new multi-year agreement with long-time partner Tribune Media Services (TMS) for television listings information, including local TV line-ups and detailed program descriptions for North America and the United Kingdom. TiVo will now have access to an enhanced TV listings offering, TMS Select, which provides more frequent availability of updates to air times and program schedules, resulting in highly accurate listings information for TiVo(R) subscribers.
"The agreement extends an ongoing relationship between the two companies for TV information and supports TiVo's ability to continue to change the way consumers watch TV."
8:52:05 PM
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"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Reason in Common Sense (New York: Scribner's, 1905), p. 218. -- George Santayana, 1863-1952
The following story is available publicly at eMarketer.com. The authors of the report have forgotten history. No consumer electronics technology has reached 3% penetration without beginning a new exponential growth curve:
Why DVRs Are Not Yet Pervasive
4 February 2004 |
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Ipsos-Insight reports that 70% of US adults know what digital video recorders (DVRs) and 48% are familiar with the popular brand of DVR, TiVO.
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Specifically, notes Ipsos, the awareness of DVRs is highest among satellite TV subscribers – 76% say they are familiar with DVRs. Interestingly, while 63% of US adults think that DVRs are easy to use and 32% think the price of DVRs is reasonable...
...70% rated their likelihood to purchase a DVR within the next year with a 1, indicating they are not at all likely to buy.
Indeed eMarketer validates this point in its 2003 Digital TV report. eMarketer estimates just 3.3% of US households currently have PVRs (or DVRs), and that a considerable jump in PVR households will not occur until 2006 when the total reaches 15.3 million households -- up from 10.4 million by the end of 2005. Even by 2006, PVRs will be in just 13.3% of households.
Dr. Klopfenstein's observation: note how the number of new subscribers versus the previous year. This forecast is extremely conservative and the authors do not report their methods for arriving at the numbers. Caveat emptor.
eMarketer explains that while cable operators are now actively deploying or testing PVRs in their markets, their focus on video-on-demand (VOD)and lack of expertise with PVR technology will delay deployment and consequently delay consumer adoption for the near future. For further insight into the future of television technology, read eMarketer’s Digital TV report.
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3:38:13 PM
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It's only a matter of time before Rupert Murdoch brings interactive television to DirecTV. He has had relatively great success in Britain with BSkyB and it's reasonable to ask when he will bring the next generation of that technology to DirecTV. Another question is what will he do with his TV Guide EPG which has unlimited potential as an advertising and program promotion asset. Finally, will he introduce a next generation DVR or will he continue DirecTV's partnership? Would TiVo sell out to DirecTV at the right price? Needless to say, those interested in iTV should be watching DirecTV. Oh, and does anyone really think tha Echostar (DishNetwork) will be twiddling its thumbs?
Hughes' new directive. Digital Media: DTV trading on NYSE, future lies in brand product -- Reflecting its core focus on satellite TV, News Corp. has changed the name of recently acquired Hughes Electronics Corp. to the DirecTV Group. [Variety.com - Digital Media]
1:18:54 PM
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Wednesday, March 31, 2004 |
Having proved their popularity with American couch potatoes, digital video recorders are about to get a boost in features that will allow them to zap several video streams throughout networked homes.
Engineers in the consumer electronics lab of hard-drive maker Maxtor, for example, are working on DVR-type devices that can record or broadcast at least six media streams at a time. That compares to three streams in current DVRs, which are hard-drive-based machines that can record video and temporarily pause live broadcasts. Three-stream machines can simultaneously record two live channels while playing a previously recorded program.
7:27:26 PM
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Information wants to be free, and so does hard drive storage price.
Hitachi to unveil 400GB drive
Hitachi Global Storage Technologies plans to announce this week a massive hard drive designed to store corporate data or record about 400 hours of video for consumers.
The new drive has a capacity of 400GB, spins at 7,200 revolutions per minute, and uses ATA (Advanced Technology Attachment) interface technology, according to a source close to Hitachi. The drive can come with either the parallel ATA interface long used in desktop computers or the newer Serial ATA interface. Dubbed the Deskstar 7K400, the drive is being tested by manufacturers and could be in digital video recorder products available to consumers later this year, the source said.
7:25:40 PM
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Published in TVSpy - Indexed on Mar 30, 2004
In a world where nearly every article about the future of TV mentions how empowered TiVo owners are giddily skipping past 30-second commercials, it seems inconceivable that some advertisers would actually be producing longer ads that they expect viewers will choose to watch voluntarily.
But that seems to be the story with long-form advertising, sometimes known as advertainment, the genetic hybrid of advertising and entertainment. Long-form ads are not to be confused with that lowest common denominator of advertising: the infomercial. For starters, they're usually not as long as an infomercial - generally running two to ten minutes. The main difference, however, is the way they are viewed by audiences: Whereas infomercials are delivered broadcast style to late night junkies, long-form ads are served up through on-demand technology, like video-on-demand (VOD) or digital video recorders (DVRs).
7:16:52 PM
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Reviewed by John P. Falcone December 9, 2003 The DVR-810H is a nearly perfect marriage of TiVo and DVD-recorder functionality.The good: Built-in TiVo DVR; easy disk-to-DVD archiving; superb interface; progressive-scan output.The bad: No way to edit out commercials; no FireWire connection; full TiVo service and the Home Media Option require additional fees.Digital video recorders (DVRs) such as TiVo and ReplayTV spoil us by making it incredibly simple to record television. Naturally, many people long for a similarly easy-to-use DVD recorder that would let them capture shows to disc with minimal hassle.
http://reviews.cnet.com/Pioneer_DVR_810H/4505-6474_7-30422588.html?tag=lst
7:12:31 PM
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Published in Tech Web - Indexed on Mar 31, 2004
Consumers Finally Embrace DVRs March 30, 2004 (7:35 p.m. EST) TechWeb News Digital video recorders are starting to take off among consumers, due primarily from cable and satellite TV providers investing heavily in DVR-enabled set-top boxes in the U.S., a market research firm said Tuesday. Consumers are starting to see the devices that use an internal hard drive to record programming as more than just high-priced VCRs, and pay TV providers are expected to reap the financial benefits, International Data Corp. said in announcing a new DVR study. "Consumers are finally beginning to get it," IDC analyst Greg Ireland said in a statement.
http://www.techweb.com/wire/story/TWB20040330S0015
7:08:28 PM
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Monday, March 29, 2004 |
Control of the video viewing experience is the future of television. I was surprised to see a "toy" that allows kids to tote around some of their favorite Nickelodeon shows including SpongeBob Square Pants. I remember my father having a beautiful portable Casio maybe 1.5 in diameter television "watch." This was a long time ago, the picture was extremely crisp, and it worked (with over-the-air) television.
I'll have to check to see what happended to the Sony portable video players because my sense is that they, too, didn't go anywhere.
Anyway, a fist sign of things to come or just another pet rock?
8:40:20 PM
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These data are actually very interesting and shows that among cable and satellite users, DVRs are no longer a mystery product. Unfortunately for cable subscribers (and great news for satellite providers Echostar and DirecTV), cable subs won't be getting much help from their providers. A quick check to Scientific Atlanta and Motorola's web sites show no press releases about shipments or planned shipments of cable set-top boxes with built-in DVRs. Ditto for cable providers including Cox, Comcast and Time-Warner.
As for the following market report, notice the shocking "sun rises in the east" nature of this report.
From the Stars to DVRs
2 March 2004 |
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Satellite customers are almost twice as likely as cable customers to own digital video recorders (DVRs), such as Tivo and ReplayTV, according to a survey conducted in January by Ipsos-Insight.
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Ipsos-Insight interviewed 973 adults from 16 to 19 January via telephone, from a nationally representative sample of 1,000 US adults ages 18 and older. It found that for the overall US population, the penetration rate for DVRs is 5.8%. Cable subscribers came in slightly below this rate at 5.6%, and satellite subscribers high above it at 11.4%.
Interestingly, satellite subscribers are only slightly more aware of DVRs compared to cable subscribers, despite their higher ownership levels. Ipsos feels that the higher ownership levels are a result of the satellite companies, DirecTV and EchoStar, aggressively promoting DVRs to their customers.
In October, Frost and Sullivan predicted that the DVR market would be worth over $15 million by 2009.
For in-depth coverage of DVRs and other digital television related products, read eMarketer's Digital TV report.
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4:39:05 PM
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I'll come back to a critique of this press release, but suffice it to say that these press releases are worth exactly what you pay for them.
DVR Sales to Grow Fivefold by 2008
23 March 2004 |
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Sales of integrated Digital Video Recorders (DVRs) will grow from 930,000 in 2002 to nearly 28 million by 2008, according to Strategy Analytics.
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Starting from 2002, the market will grow at an average annual growth rate of 59% through 2008, when there will be a total of 71.5 million integrated DVR users.
Integrated DVRs are a subset of the overall DVR market, and include only devices that come with a digital TV subscription (set-top box, or STB, receivers with integrated hard disk drive storage devices), not standalone DVRs like TiVo or Replay TV, or DVD recorders. Thus, the growth of integrated DVRs is tied to the growth of digital TV services. eMarketer predicts that the steady expansion of this market, including its penetration into a larger percentage of households, will continue into 2005.
Gains by Scientific Atlanta in the past year have put it in a dead heat for the title of number one integrated DVR vendor with EchoStar. Strategy Analytics believes that Pace and Humax could benefit if DirecTV were to emphasize DVRs in the future, and that there's also a window of opportunity for major electronics companies like Philips, Pioneer, Samsung and Sony.
For numerous charts and additional analysis of the DVR market, visit eMarketer's website and search the eStat Database. A full report studying digital TV, including DVRs and TV on-demand, will be released in early fall 2004. Sign up for report notifications at http://www.emarketer.com/products/reports/notify.php. |
4:29:41 PM
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It's hard to believe, but the debate about the convergence of PCs and TVs continues despite much evidence that there is much market for any such device. I do continue to think that it's odd we are buying two (more and more flatscreen) monitors when at least theoretically one can serve the same function (TV viewing and PC use). It makes sense to forecast a final convergence when/if home networks take off and we can access our computer programs from any (new or digital) TV set in the household. From my vantage point, the slow rollout of HDTV in the U.S. actually portends the eventual demise of the 2-screen approach (use your laptop while watching TV). PC monitor technology keeps racing ahead while HDTV monitors keep dropping in price.
Or...is there something about human behavior that will want to keep the PC use private while allowing TV viewing to be more public? Here, too, as fifth and sixth television sets show up in virtually all the bedrooms in a house, perhaps the one screen "solution" will take over. Wise observers know this is not a question of technology (it is nearly there already) but a fascinating question about human behavior.
3:21:05 PM
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Patricia Karpas of AOL said the company's TV team compiles the list of clips from their favorite shows and by reading what AOL members are discussing online. They also consider data from TiVo that indicates which TV shows were paused, replayed and watched most.
3:07:45 PM
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Nice archived version of where the DVR market stood from a consumer's perspective as of 2003. It's likely that the price (sticker shock for lifetime subscription) has scared many would-be TiVo subscribers away. The more TiVo gets advertising support, the less of an obstacle this will be.
Despite TiVo's public comments that they will continue to rely on subscriptions as a company, that flies in the face of the history of most mass communication technologies in the U.S. People who understand this history, for example, knew that the web was destined to become an advertiser-supported medium (it's been 10 years since most web sites were non-commercial, but that's how things started).
3:00:58 PM
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From the Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17555-2004Mar23.html), another example of TiVo as Keenex:
Adams Morgan, Washington, D.C.: I can't set the clock on my VCR. I've read the instructions, but they're in Japanese! It's like they don't want me to know the secret of setting the clock. Do you think that would make a good story? You can use it if you want.
John Kelly: You should have TiVo dude.
2:53:48 PM
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Friday, March 19, 2004 |
I'm trying to figure out TiVo's place in the future PVR embodied household. As a student of new media adoption and diffusion for the past 25 years, I can say with authority that PVRs will track close to the diffusion curve for the VCR but not as likely for the DVD player's diffusion curve. Why? Cable operators, like PBS, make decisions centrally that can greatly impact the market introduction and take-up of new television services like the PVR.
For those television households that are also cable subscribers, few have an "automatic" option to add or "upgrade" to PVR. With DirecTV's joint marketing of TiVo and especially Echostar's aggressive rollout of its PVR, satellite viewers as a group will experience PVRs before cable subscribers do.
Cable operators are in something of a Catch-22. They want to perfect and roll-out their potentially lucrative video-on-demand services, but this may or may not have anything to do with their need to have a set-top box with a hard drive capable of storing 40 hours or more of television programming. Should cable operators upgrade rapidly to the next generation of set-top boxes with "standard" PVRs, the diffusion curve could be nearly as dramatic as that which we saw for the DVD player. Like DVD players, it is possible that households will adopt more than one PVR which would be great news for the providers of the hardware and software.
Meanwhile, does anyone know what ReplayTV is doing?
2:44:07 PM
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Sunday, March 14, 2004 |
Here is a quick check on current TiVo news.
2:20:51 PM
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© Copyright 2004 Dr. Bruce Klopfenstein.
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