Friday, April 02, 2004

Reports of the Death of TiVo Have Been Greatly Exaggerated Klopfenstein: I had to have a TiVo before making any judgments about it. Once I used one, its implications for the television viewing experience were obvious. I can say without equivocation that it is nearly impossible to communicate the benefits of a DVR to someone who has not used one. It's one of the reasons they have been "slow" to take off. It appears from other reports cited in this blog that we are now past critical mass and DVRs are set to take their place beside (or in conjunction with) the home DVD player. But may people, like Scott Shamp at the New Media Institute at UGA, were like Eric Hellweg. Eric Hellweg of CNN/Money had the guts to admit what many other prognosticators had forecast for the year 2003: " What did I get wrong? I said that both TiVo and Sonicblue would go bye-bye, unable to withstand the continued encroachment by cable companies offering personal video recorder functionality in their digital cable boxes." 9:22:49 PM    comment []

Consumers WANT to Skip Commercials Klopfenstein: Is TiVo making a mistake by not allowing consumers to easily and rapidly fast forward through commercials? TiVo purposely does not allow users to fast forward through commercial breaks (i.e., the fast forwarding is slow enough to allow advertisers' messages to register with TiVo users). New research from Knowledge Networks/SRI shows that early adopters of home media technologies are willing to pay a significant price -- in dollars and convenience -- for the capability to bypass commercials in television programming; but many may not be willing to offer up information on their viewing habits as part of the bargain.     The findings come from two recently released reports -- All Things Digital and How People Use(R) Interactive TV -- published as part of The Home Technology Monitor(TM), a service tracking consumers' ownership and use of media technologies.  The data show that awareness of digital video recorders (such as TiVo(R)) -- which enable ad skipping at the push of a button -- has risen from 56% in 2002 to 72% among early adopters.     Though 63% of these high-tech consumers say that watching commercials is a fair price to pay for TV programming, an even higher proportion (72%) do not think that DVR ad-skipping capabilities should be restricted or eliminated. This sentiment was stronger among younger respondents (86% of those ages 18 to 34) than older ones (66% of those 50 or older).     Early adopters also said -- by a three to one margin (74% versus 22%) -- that the ability to skip commercials is more important to them than being able to watch programs "on demand" (at the time most convenient to them).     About 5% of early adopters have a DVR, and 14% of non-owners say they would be "very interested" in paying $10 extra per month for a set-top box with a DVR built in.     Newer DVRs and digital set-top boxes have the capacity to capture users' viewing, pause, and replay data -- information that can be collected by the service provider.  Knowledge Networks research shows that 57% of those with advanced TV services agree with the statement, "No one should be able to find out any information about what I watch."  Among these privacy-minded consumers, only 23% said they would be more likely to share their viewing information if they were offered incentives (such as discounts on their TV service). 9:10:20 PM    comment []

TiVo vs. DirecTV? DVRs are the hottest topic within what I define as interactive television (with viewers taking control of the viewing experience). Rupert Murdoch owns DirecTV and the TV Guide EPG. This just futher adds to the question in my mind as to whether (or when) DirecTV will go with its own DVR and program Guide. From http://money.cnn.com/services/tickerheadlines/prn/cgw016a.P1.03162004193950.03565.htm "TiVo Inc. has signed a new multi-year agreement with long-time partner Tribune Media Services (TMS) for television listings information, including local TV line-ups and detailed program descriptions for North America and the United Kingdom. TiVo will now have access to an enhanced TV listings offering, TMS Select, which provides more frequent availability of updates to air times and program schedules, resulting in highly accurate listings information for TiVo(R) subscribers. "The agreement extends an ongoing relationship between the two companies for TV information and supports TiVo's ability to continue to change the way consumers watch TV." 8:52:05 PM    comment []

Why eMarketer is Wrong on DVRs "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Reason in Common Sense (New York: Scribner's, 1905), p. 218. -- George Santayana, 1863-1952 The following story is available publicly at eMarketer.com. The authors of the report have forgotten history. No consumer electronics technology has reached 3% penetration without beginning a new exponential growth curve: Why DVRs Are Not Yet Pervasive 4 February 2004 Ipsos-Insight reports that 70% of US adults know what digital video recorders (DVRs) and 48% are familiar with the popular brand of DVR, TiVO.   Specifically, notes Ipsos, the awareness of DVRs is highest among satellite TV subscribers – 76% say they are familiar with DVRs. Interestingly, while 63% of US adults think that DVRs are easy to use and 32% think the price of DVRs is reasonable... ...70% rated their likelihood to purchase a DVR within the next year with a 1, indicating they are not at all likely to buy. Indeed eMarketer validates this point in its 2003 Digital TV report. eMarketer estimates just 3.3% of US households currently have PVRs (or DVRs), and that a considerable jump in PVR households will not occur until 2006 when the total reaches 15.3 million households -- up from 10.4 million by the end of 2005. Even by 2006, PVRs will be in just 13.3% of households. Dr. Klopfenstein's observation: note how the number of new subscribers versus the previous year. This forecast is extremely conservative and the authors do not report their methods for arriving at the numbers. Caveat emptor. eMarketer explains that while cable operators are now actively deploying or testing PVRs in their markets, their focus on video-on-demand (VOD)and lack of expertise with PVR technology will delay deployment and consequently delay consumer adoption for the near future. For further insight into the future of television technology, read eMarketer’s Digital TV report.   PUB DATE: 04 Feb 2004 SUBJECTS: Digital Video Recorder (DVR) SUBJECT PATHS: Media & Entertainment > Consumer Electronics > Digital Video Recorder (DVR) GEOGRAPHY: United States SOURCES: Ipsos-Reid; eMarketer RELATED REPORT: Digital Television 2003: The Emergence of Advanced TV Services, August 2003 3:38:13 PM    comment []

Boost for iTV Coming to the U.S. It's only a matter of time before Rupert Murdoch brings interactive television to DirecTV. He has had relatively great success in Britain with BSkyB and it's reasonable to ask when he will bring the next generation of that technology to DirecTV. Another question is what will he do with his TV Guide EPG which has unlimited potential as an advertising and program promotion asset. Finally, will he introduce a next generation DVR or will he continue DirecTV's partnership? Would TiVo sell out to DirecTV at the right price? Needless to say, those interested in iTV should be watching DirecTV. Oh, and does anyone really think tha Echostar (DishNetwork) will be twiddling its thumbs? Hughes' new directive. Digital Media: DTV trading on NYSE, future lies in brand product -- Reflecting its core focus on satellite TV, News Corp. has changed the name of recently acquired Hughes Electronics Corp. to the DirecTV Group. [Variety.com - Digital Media]   1:18:54 PM    comment []